UNLV @

Oregon St.

Sat, Oct 19
The CW
7:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 413
Odds: Oregon St. +6.5, Total: 61.5

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **Nevada-Las Vegas (-6.5)  38   OREGON STATE  23

I thought UNLV would be better without quarterback Matthew Sluka, who left the team after a 3-0 start due to NIL money he says was promised and not paid. I thought they’d be better because new quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams had proven to be a much better passer in his days at the FCS level (Sluka also transferred in from an FCS school) while being about the same as far as running the ball. Sluka completed just 44% of his passes in 3 games while running for 273 yards at 7.8 yards a run, and Williams has completed 77% of his passes in 3 starts while running for 275 yards  at 8.6 yards per run. The running backs have also been better with Williams at quarterback with more threat of the pass to keep defenses honest.

The Rebels’ big play offense has averaged 49 points per game (in regulation) and 8.0 yards per play in Williams’ 3 starts, which includes games against decent defensive teams Fresno State (8.0 yppl against the Bulldogs) and Syracuse (7.2 yppl). I don’t expect UNLV to continue that level of explosiveness but the run-oriented attack should have another great game against an Oregon State defense that has allowed an average of 6.9 yards per rushing play in 6 games against teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average defense. The Beavers have faced 3 better than average running teams (Oregon, Purdue and Nevada) and they allowed an average of 288 rush yards at 8.7 yprp in those games. Yikes! Oregon State is also 0.6 yppp worse than average defending the pass so Williams should continue to efficient passing.

Oregon State’s offense will likely run a lot more plays than UNLV but their sub-par attack (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) figures to struggle against a good Rebels’ defense that’s yielded just 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average stop unit.

UNLV also has the nation’s best special teams and I expect a comfortable win for the Rebels.

UNLV is a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less and 1-Star to -8.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • UNLV
  • Oregon St.
UNLV
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 38.0 28.0
  • Run Yards 225.2 131.8
  • YPRP 5.9 4.7




Pass





  • Pass Comp 12.4 28.2
  • Pass Att 18.8 45.8
  • Comp % 66.0% 61.6%
  • Pass Yards 171.4 297.4
  • Sacks 1.8 3.0
  • Sack Yards 11.6 19.4
  • Sack % 8.7% 6.1%
  • Pass Plays 20.6 48.8
  • Net Pass Yards 159.8 278.0
  • YPPP 7.8 5.7

Total

  • Total Plays 58.6 76.8
  • Total Yards 385.0 409.8
  • YPPL 6.6 5.3

TO


  • Int 0.4 2.0
  • Int % 2.1% 4.4%
  • Fumbles 0.0 0.2
  • Turnovers 0.4 2.2
 
  • Points 45.3 22.2
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