Game Analysis
Lean – Nevada-Las Vegas (-10) 41 NEW MEXICO 27
New Mexico has the worst defense in the nation in terms of yards per play, compensated by opposing offenses faced and UNLV has scored 44 points, 40 points, 45 points, 44 points, and 45 points in 5 games against worse than average defensive teams this season.
UNLV’s defense has struggled since losing star S Jerrae Williams after 4 games (he may come back this season) and New Mexico has a capable offense that has averaged 25.3 points and 5.8 yards per play in 7 games against FBS competition (they rate at 0.1 yppl worse than average). However, UNLV should be able to put some distance between them and the Lobos and win by double-digits.
I will lean with UNLV at -10 or less but I think the better bet is their team total over 35.5 points given how they’ve gotten to 40 points or more all 5 times against bad defensive teams (and New Mexico is the worst defensive team).
Rush
-
Run Plays
41.3
28.4
-
Run Yards
200.6
131.4
-
YPRP
4.9
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.3
20.1
-
Pass Att
29.6
33.7
-
Comp %
61.9%
59.7%
-
Pass Yards
233.3
274.1
-
Sacks
1.7
2.7
-
Sack Yards
8.7
18.7
-
Sack %
5.5%
7.4%
-
Pass Plays
31.3
36.4
-
Net Pass Yards
224.6
255.4
-
YPPP
7.2
7.0
Total
-
Total Plays
72.6
64.9
-
Total Yards
425.2
386.9
-
YPPL
5.9
6.0
TO
-
Int
0.7
1.4
-
Int %
2.4%
4.2%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.1
2.1
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.1
30.9
-
Run Yards
160.6
192.0
-
YPRP
5.2
6.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.6
16.7
-
Pass Att
31.0
26.4
-
Comp %
56.7%
63.2%
-
Pass Yards
221.1
248.1
-
Sacks
1.4
1.1
-
Sack Yards
9.9
8.1
-
Sack %
4.4%
4.1%
-
Pass Plays
32.4
27.6
-
Net Pass Yards
211.3
240.0
-
YPPP
6.5
8.7
Total
-
Total Plays
63.6
58.4
-
Total Yards
371.9
432.0
-
YPPL
5.8
7.4
TO
-
Int
0.9
0.4
-
Int %
2.8%
1.6%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.1
-
Turnovers
1.2
0.6
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/23 Bryant |
44-14 |
0.0
W
|
39/38 |
292/207 |
7.5/5.4 |
1/0 |
15/19 |
24/31 |
119/225 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
4.8/7.0 |
411/432 |
6.4/6.2 |
09/09/23 @ Michigan |
7-35 |
+37.5
W
|
26/33 |
77/184 |
3.0/5.6 |
0/0 |
13/24 |
26/28 |
117/313 |
0/0 |
5/0 |
3.8/11.2 |
194/497 |
3.4/8.1 |
09/16/23 Vanderbilt |
40-37 |
+5.0
W
|
38/34 |
140/106 |
3.7/3.1 |
0/3 |
21/18 |
37/37 |
264/316 |
2/1 |
2/4 |
6.8/7.7 |
404/422 |
5.2/5.6 |
09/23/23 @ UTEP |
45-28 |
-1.0
W
|
48/30 |
307/123 |
6.4/4.1 |
0/0 |
15/14 |
27/31 |
190/193 |
1/3 |
0/4 |
7.0/5.5 |
497/316 |
6.6/4.9 |
09/30/23 Hawaii |
44-20 |
-11.0
W
|
46/20 |
308/94 |
6.7/4.7 |
0/1 |
11/22 |
21/35 |
142/265 |
0/1 |
0/6 |
6.8/6.5 |
450/359 |
6.7/5.9 |
10/14/23 @ Nevada |
45-27 |
-8.0
W
|
45/34 |
266/206 |
5.9/6.1 |
0/1 |
20/15 |
25/31 |
251/224 |
0/2 |
2/3 |
9.3/6.6 |
517/430 |
7.2/6.3 |
10/21/23 Colorado St. |
25-23 |
-7.0
L
|
44/30 |
149/145 |
3.4/4.8 |
1/0 |
27/21 |
36/33 |
341/227 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
9.0/6.7 |
490/372 |
6.0/5.8 |
10/28/23 @ Fresno St. |
24-31 |
+10.5
W
|
42/18 |
157/62 |
3.7/3.4 |
2/0 |
21/27 |
35/41 |
267/250 |
2/2 |
1/1 |
7.4/6.0 |
424/312 |
5.4/5.2 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/02/23 @ Texas A&M |
10-52 |
+38.0
L
|
30/27 |
104/158 |
3.5/5.9 |
0/0 |
16/24 |
28/32 |
118/262 |
1/0 |
2/2 |
3.9/7.7 |
222/420 |
3.7/6.9 |
09/09/23 Tennessee Tech |
56-10 |
0.0
W
|
36/32 |
296/119 |
8.2/3.7 |
0/2 |
15/22 |
20/37 |
272/211 |
2/0 |
0/1 |
13.6/5.6 |
568/330 |
10.1/4.7 |
09/16/23 New Mexico St. |
17-27 |
-1.5
L
|
31/28 |
165/186 |
5.3/6.6 |
1/0 |
20/10 |
39/15 |
238/217 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
6.0/13.6 |
403/403 |
5.7/9.2 |
09/23/23 @ Massachusetts |
34-31 |
+3.5
W
|
35/44 |
155/207 |
4.4/4.7 |
0/0 |
9/16 |
17/25 |
173/286 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
8.7/11.0 |
328/493 |
6.0/7.0 |
09/30/23 @ Wyoming |
26-35 |
+14.0
W
|
28/30 |
234/247 |
8.4/8.2 |
1/0 |
19/16 |
37/25 |
184/186 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
4.7/7.2 |
418/433 |
6.2/7.7 |
10/14/23 San Jose St. |
24-52 |
+7.0
L
|
35/30 |
131/269 |
3.7/9.0 |
0/0 |
18/8 |
30/17 |
260/272 |
1/0 |
1/0 |
8.4/16.0 |
391/541 |
5.9/11.5 |
10/21/23 Hawaii |
42-21 |
-2.0
W
|
36/13 |
237/71 |
6.6/5.5 |
0/1 |
20/33 |
26/52 |
195/332 |
0/3 |
1/2 |
7.2/6.1 |
432/403 |
6.9/6.0 |
10/28/23 @ Nevada |
24-34 |
0.0
L
|
23/44 |
98/206 |
4.3/4.7 |
0/0 |
21/10 |
40/19 |
311/125 |
3/0 |
0/1 |
7.8/6.3 |
409/331 |
6.5/5.2 |