Game Analysis
Lean – BOISE STATE (-12.5) 39 Nevada-Las Vegas 21
UNLV had a good offense that’s averaged 38 points 7.1 yards per play but they’ve faced a schedule of opponents that would combine to allow 35.1 points and 6.4 yppl to an average team. That unit should be slowed down by a Boise defense that’s been 0.6 yppl better than average so far this season – although I do expect the Rebels’ ground attack to work well.
UNLV has faced two better than average defensive teams in Miami-Ohio and Wyoming and the Rebels averaged just 388 yards at 5.3 yppl in those two games.
The issue with UNLV is a defense that’s been worse than their offense has been good. The Rebels have yielded 6.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team and Boise State has a better than average offense (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) that should eventually pull away in this game.
Boise also applies to a 151-76-2 ATS situation while UNLV applies to a 36-86-2 ATS situation.
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.2
32.8
-
Run Yards
218.0
199.8
-
YPRP
6.6
6.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.8
21.5
-
Pass Att
27.5
36.8
-
Comp %
68.5%
58.4%
-
Pass Yards
240.8
255.0
-
Sacks
2.0
1.2
-
Sack Yards
14.8
6.2
-
Sack %
6.8%
3.1%
-
Pass Plays
29.5
38.0
-
Net Pass Yards
226.0
248.8
-
YPPP
7.7
6.5
Total
-
Total Plays
62.7
70.8
-
Total Yards
444.0
448.7
-
YPPL
7.1
6.3
TO
-
Int
0.5
1.5
-
Int %
1.8%
4.1%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.8
-
Turnovers
0.8
2.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.2
29.8
-
Run Yards
199.2
158.7
-
YPRP
5.4
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.8
15.2
-
Pass Att
35.8
27.2
-
Comp %
60.9%
55.8%
-
Pass Yards
284.7
176.2
-
Sacks
1.7
2.2
-
Sack Yards
11.2
11.7
-
Sack %
4.5%
7.4%
-
Pass Plays
37.5
29.3
-
Net Pass Yards
273.5
164.5
-
YPPP
7.3
5.6
Total
-
Total Plays
74.7
59.2
-
Total Yards
472.7
323.2
-
YPPL
6.3
5.5
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.2
-
Int %
2.3%
4.3%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.7
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2025 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/23/25 Idaho State |
38-31 |
0.0
W
|
38/24 |
337/176 |
8.9/7.3 |
1/0 |
18/31 |
24/52 |
201/384 |
0/4 |
3/1 |
7.4/7.2 |
538/560 |
8.3/7.3 |
| 08/29/25 @ Sam Houston State |
38-21 |
-9.5
W
|
31/31 |
164/161 |
5.3/5.2 |
0/0 |
19/19 |
23/35 |
247/171 |
1/1 |
1/4 |
10.3/4.4 |
411/332 |
7.5/4.7 |
| 09/06/25 UCLA |
30-23 |
+2.0
W
|
28/28 |
172/183 |
6.1/6.5 |
0/1 |
15/29 |
21/41 |
182/244 |
0/1 |
2/2 |
7.9/5.7 |
354/427 |
6.9/6.0 |
| 09/20/25 @ Miami Ohio |
41-38 |
-2.5
W
|
39/22 |
243/131 |
6.2/6.0 |
0/1 |
29/15 |
44/30 |
270/265 |
2/2 |
4/0 |
5.6/8.8 |
513/396 |
5.9/7.6 |
| 10/04/25 @ Wyoming |
31-17 |
-3.5
W
|
36/26 |
172/111 |
4.8/4.3 |
1/2 |
11/25 |
20/46 |
90/254 |
0/1 |
2/0 |
4.1/5.5 |
262/365 |
4.5/5.1 |
| 10/11/25 Air Force |
51-48 |
-7.0
L
|
27/66 |
220/437 |
8.1/6.6 |
0/1 |
21/10 |
33/17 |
366/175 |
0/0 |
0/0 |
11.1/10.3 |
586/612 |
9.8/7.4 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2025 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/28/25 @ South Florida |
7-34 |
-6.0
L
|
37/24 |
133/144 |
3.6/6.0 |
3/0 |
26/16 |
48/24 |
238/181 |
0/0 |
1/4 |
4.9/6.5 |
371/325 |
4.3/6.3 |
| 09/05/25 Eastern Washington |
51-14 |
0.0
W
|
37/30 |
278/128 |
7.5/4.3 |
0/1 |
21/19 |
34/37 |
393/150 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
11.6/3.9 |
671/278 |
9.5/4.1 |
| 09/20/25 @ Air Force |
49-37 |
-11.0
W
|
29/53 |
285/270 |
9.8/5.1 |
0/0 |
16/13 |
27/20 |
310/245 |
1/1 |
0/1 |
11.5/11.7 |
595/515 |
10.6/7.0 |
| 09/27/25 Appalachian State |
47-14 |
-16.0
W
|
42/24 |
182/136 |
4.3/5.7 |
0/1 |
25/15 |
38/29 |
313/71 |
0/3 |
1/4 |
8.0/2.2 |
495/207 |
6.1/3.6 |
| 10/04/25 @ Notre Dame |
7-28 |
+20.5
L
|
30/27 |
133/216 |
4.4/8.0 |
0/0 |
22/15 |
37/23 |
182/184 |
4/0 |
4/1 |
4.4/7.7 |
315/400 |
4.4/7.8 |
| 10/11/25 New Mexico |
41-25 |
-15.5
W
|
48/21 |
184/58 |
3.8/2.8 |
0/1 |
21/13 |
31/30 |
205/156 |
0/2 |
4/2 |
5.9/4.9 |
389/214 |
4.7/4.0 |