Game Analysis

Lean – BOISE STATE (-5)  34   Nevada-Las Vegas  25

Boise State won the regular season meeting against UNLV 56-31 with the Broncos averaging 10.2 yards per play. Boise’s offense struggled in their final 4 games of the season without quarterback Maddux Madsen, but Madsen is back this week. Madsen did not have a great season, other than a few games, and he’ll be without WR Ben Ford, whose 10.2 yards per target leads the team – although on just 32 targets. I rate Boise’s offense at 0.1 yards per play worse than average after adjusting for Madsen being back and Ford being out (and adjusting for outliers that skewed the Broncos’ average rating upwards). That unit has an edge over a horrible UNLV defense that allowed 6.4 yards per play this season (to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defense). I project 478 yards at 6.6 yppl in the rainy conditions expected in Boise on Friday night.

UNLV is in this game because of an offense that averaged 37 points and 7.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team). The Rebels played half of their games in a dome and have to play this game outdoors and in the rain. That unit averaged 6.1 yppl in their loss at Boise earlier this season in really good scoring conditions (sunny and a slight breeze) and I project 337 yards at 5.9 yppl in this game (adjusted for the weather) against a Boise defense that’s been 0.2 yppl better than average.

The line value is on the side of the Broncos as long as Madsen plays at his median level of play in his first game back.