Game Analysis
Louisiana-Lafayette (-14) 33 Texas-San Antonio 19
Louisiana-Lafayette’s only loss was by just 3 points against unbeaten Coastal Carolina and the Rain’ Cajuns should win this game by more than two touchdowns if they are properly focused in preparation to play a much weaker team. My math model favors Louisiana-Lafayette by 17.6 points but they apply to a very negative 8-58-2 ATS bowl letdown situation.
ULL’s balanced attack averages well over 200 yards both rushing and passing that unit (0.6 yppl better than average) should move the ball easily against a UTSA defense than has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average defense).
Louisiana’s advantage is even greater when the Roadrunners have the ball, as UTSA has been 0.6 yppl worse than average with quarterback Frank Harris at quarterback despite two recent offensive outbursts against horrible defensive teams UTEP and North Texas (over 1200 combined yards at 8.8 yppl in those two games). UTSA hasn’t faced a defense close to as good as the ULL stop unit that yielded just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense but the Roadrunners only averaged 4.8 yppl and 13 points against UAB, BYU, Army, and Florida Atlantic – the 4 mediocre defenses they faced (they didn’t face a good defense).
ULL should dominate if they are have enough respect for their opponent to prepare properly but this game has letdown written all over it. I’ll pass.
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.4
40.6
-
Run Yards
219.6
175.0
-
YPRP
6.2
4.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.0
15.5
-
Pass Att
28.5
30.3
-
Comp %
59.6%
51.2%
-
Pass Yards
221.3
164.7
-
Sacks
0.6
1.9
-
Sack Yards
4.8
13.0
-
Sack %
2.1%
5.9%
-
Pass Plays
29.1
32.2
-
Net Pass Yards
216.5
151.7
-
YPPP
7.4
4.7
Total
-
Total Plays
65.5
72.8
-
Total Yards
440.9
339.7
-
YPPL
6.7
4.7
TO
-
Int
0.7
1.5
-
Int %
2.5%
5.0%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.2
2.1
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.7
34.6
-
Run Yards
217.7
157.6
-
YPRP
6.1
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.0
18.9
-
Pass Att
31.6
30.6
-
Comp %
60.2%
61.9%
-
Pass Yards
200.5
229.0
-
Sacks
2.0
2.4
-
Sack Yards
13.2
14.8
-
Sack %
6.0%
7.2%
-
Pass Plays
33.6
32.9
-
Net Pass Yards
187.3
214.2
-
YPPP
5.6
6.5
Total
-
Total Plays
71.3
67.5
-
Total Yards
418.2
386.6
-
YPPL
5.9
5.7
TO
-
Int
0.6
1.0
-
Int %
2.0%
3.3%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.6
-
Turnovers
0.9
1.6
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/12/20 @ Iowa St. |
31-14 |
+11.5
W
|
32/35 |
133/155 |
4.2/4.4 |
0/1 |
13/16 |
21/35 |
139/139 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
5.8/3.9 |
272/294 |
4.9/4.1 |
| 09/19/20 @ Georgia St. |
34-31 |
-15.0
L
|
38/50 |
254/244 |
6.7/4.9 |
0/1 |
21/22 |
37/39 |
264/179 |
2/1 |
1/2 |
6.9/4.4 |
518/423 |
6.8/4.6 |
| 09/26/20 Georgia Southern |
20-18 |
-11.5
L
|
25/49 |
148/192 |
5.9/3.9 |
0/1 |
18/11 |
32/18 |
290/255 |
1/1 |
0/0 |
9.1/14.2 |
438/447 |
7.7/6.7 |
| 10/14/20 Coastal Carolina |
27-30 |
-7.5
L
|
31/46 |
240/220 |
7.7/4.8 |
0/0 |
14/17 |
24/24 |
173/198 |
1/0 |
0/1 |
7.2/7.9 |
413/418 |
7.5/5.9 |
| 10/23/20 @ UAB |
24-20 |
+2.0
W
|
39/40 |
148/175 |
3.8/4.4 |
0/0 |
12/10 |
20/23 |
145/110 |
0/2 |
1/0 |
6.9/4.8 |
293/285 |
4.9/4.5 |
| 10/31/20 @ Texas State |
44-34 |
-17.0
L
|
48/35 |
286/215 |
6.0/6.1 |
3/0 |
22/15 |
34/33 |
348/128 |
1/3 |
0/4 |
10.2/3.5 |
634/343 |
7.7/4.8 |
| 11/07/20 Arkansas St. |
27-20 |
-13.5
L
|
36/42 |
208/209 |
5.8/5.0 |
0/0 |
17/21 |
29/40 |
233/214 |
1/2 |
1/2 |
7.8/5.1 |
441/423 |
6.7/5.0 |
| 11/14/20 South Alabama |
38-10 |
-15.0
W
|
35/34 |
246/138 |
7.0/4.1 |
1/1 |
24/18 |
36/36 |
292/130 |
1/1 |
0/3 |
8.1/3.3 |
538/268 |
7.6/3.7 |
| 11/28/20 @ UL Monroe |
70-20 |
-28.5
W
|
40/29 |
349/109 |
8.7/3.8 |
1/1 |
21/15 |
29/34 |
180/92 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
6.2/2.5 |
529/201 |
7.7/3.0 |
| 12/04/20 @ Appalachian State |
24-21 |
+3.0
W
|
40/46 |
232/223 |
5.8/4.8 |
0/1 |
8/10 |
23/21 |
101/72 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
4.4/3.0 |
333/295 |
5.3/4.2 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/12/20 @ Texas State |
51-48 |
+5.5
W
|
50/32 |
331/153 |
6.6/4.8 |
0/0 |
23/27 |
31/41 |
168/319 |
0/2 |
1/5 |
5.3/6.9 |
499/472 |
6.1/6.1 |
| 09/19/20 Stephen F. Austin |
24-10 |
0.0
W
|
44/25 |
237/74 |
5.4/3.0 |
1/1 |
23/21 |
36/33 |
261/279 |
1/0 |
1/3 |
7.1/7.8 |
498/353 |
6.1/5.8 |
| 09/25/20 Middle Tenn St |
37-35 |
-7.0
L
|
25/37 |
104/224 |
4.2/6.1 |
0/0 |
23/31 |
42/47 |
289/339 |
1/2 |
1/4 |
6.7/6.6 |
393/563 |
5.8/6.4 |
| 10/03/20 @ UAB |
13-21 |
+21.0
W
|
32/35 |
218/218 |
6.8/6.2 |
0/1 |
9/18 |
25/29 |
62/195 |
1/3 |
4/0 |
2.1/6.7 |
280/413 |
4.6/6.5 |
| 10/10/20 @ BYU |
20-27 |
+35.0
W
|
25/37 |
85/182 |
3.4/4.9 |
0/1 |
24/22 |
33/30 |
276/292 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
7.9/9.7 |
361/474 |
6.0/7.1 |
| 10/17/20 Army |
16-28 |
+9.5
L
|
31/56 |
205/323 |
6.6/5.8 |
0/1 |
19/1 |
39/3 |
178/41 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
4.5/8.2 |
383/364 |
5.4/6.0 |
| 10/24/20 Louisiana Tech |
27-26 |
+2.5
W
|
47/25 |
218/99 |
4.6/4.0 |
0/1 |
19/25 |
34/39 |
170/155 |
2/1 |
4/2 |
4.5/3.8 |
388/254 |
4.6/3.8 |
| 10/31/20 @ Florida Atl. |
3-24 |
+5.0
L
|
31/48 |
151/222 |
4.9/4.6 |
0/0 |
14/12 |
34/20 |
102/134 |
0/0 |
6/2 |
2.6/6.1 |
253/356 |
3.6/5.1 |
| 11/14/20 UTEP |
52-21 |
-6.0
W
|
44/26 |
307/99 |
7.0/3.8 |
2/2 |
22/15 |
28/22 |
306/150 |
0/0 |
1/3 |
10.6/6.0 |
613/249 |
8.4/4.9 |
| 11/21/20 @ Southern Miss |
23-20 |
-9.5
L
|
45/23 |
235/91 |
5.2/4.0 |
0/0 |
12/22 |
19/39 |
71/259 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
3.7/6.3 |
306/350 |
4.8/5.5 |
| 11/28/20 North Texas |
49-17 |
-2.5
W
|
41/36 |
449/211 |
11.0/5.9 |
0/0 |
21/14 |
26/33 |
177/193 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
6.6/5.4 |
626/404 |
9.2/5.6 |
UTSA