Game Analysis

Texas Christian (-10)  31   Louisiana-Lafayette  24

Louisiana-Lafayette had a very good offense this season, as the Ragin’ Cajuns averaged 7.0 yards per play with either of their top two quarterbacks on the field (against FBS teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team). Starting QB Ben Wooldridge was injured in week 12 and veteran former starter Chandler Fields was even better throwing the ball the last 3 ½ games. Fields was injured in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, but Wooldridge is back practicing with the team and is now expected to start. Wooldridge won’t have #2 WR Harvey Broussard and possibly #4 WR Robert Williams (injured in the last game) to throw to, but those two combined for just 648 receiving yards (against FBS teams) at a modest 8.0 yards per target and the receiver group is fine with Lance LeGendre on the field (12.4 YPT on 64 targets). The loss of TE Terrance Carter, however, is an issue, as Carter averaged 10.4 yards per target on 63 targets against FBS teams while the other two tight ends combined for just 148 yards at 5.9 YPT. Some of Carter’s targets will go to the wide receiver group but I value him at 1.8 points. Not having big play RB Dre’lyn Washington also hurts, as Washington averaged 6.7 ypr on his 68 runs against FBS teams while adding 107 receiving yards on just 7 targets. Washington is worth 1.2 points. The Ragin’ Cajuns are also weaker up front with starting LT McGowen and starting LG Gillie both absent from the bowl depth chart. I rate the ULL offense at 0.1 yppl worse than average with those key losses factored in, with TE Carter being the big loss.

The TCU defense gave up 28.8 points per game to FBS opponents but that average was skewed up by the 66 points they allowed to SMU (on just 6.3 yppl) and the Horned Frogs are actually 0.8 yppl better than average defensively – yielding 5.4 yppl to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense. That unit appears to be intact now that safety Jamel Johnson has removed himself from the transfer portal – although he’s now listed as a backup on the depth chart and I adjusted a bit for that.

The TCU offense was 0.9 yppl better than average in the regular season, averaging 6.4 yppl (with QB Hoover in the game) against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. The top two pass catchers, Jack Bech and Savion Williams will both miss this game, but I don’t think that’s going to be an issue given that they combined for 9.1 yards per target against FBS teams while the rest of the wide receivers combined to average 10.1 YPT on 145 targets. Bech, however, was certainly the star (1023 yards at 11.2 YPT in FBS games) and demanded attention from opposing defenses, but Williams was horrible (6.8 YPT on 81 targets) compared to the other receivers. Williams was valuable in the running game, however, as he tallied 322 yards at 6.3 yards per run. Leading rusher Cam Cook has transferred but his 3.8 ypr in FBS games won’t be missed. Overall, I project the Horned Frogs’ attack to be only slightly worse than they were in the regular season.

Louisiana’s defense was average this season, (5.5 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team), but they are down what amounts to 2.5 starters, as S Tyree Skipper is still injured and LB Carmycah Glass and CB Justin Agu have both entered the transfer portal and are not on the depth chart. Glass was #2 in tackles but had very few impact plays and Agu is solid in coverage. That trio is worth 2.4 points based on my algorithm and ULL’s defense projects to be 0.3 yppl worse than average with available defenders.

After all the adjustments I favor TCU by 11.3 points with a total of 55.5 points. However, Louisiana-Lafayette applies to my best bowl situation – a 78-15-1 ATS angle that has already won once this year with Sam Houston State winning straight up as a dog.