Game Analysis

Louisiana-Lafayette (-4)  30   Marshall  25

Louisiana-Lafayette has won 12 consecutive games since losing at Texas in their opener while Marshall is just 7-5 with zero wins in 4 games against teams that have an overall rating of -5 points or better (i.e. better than 5 points worse than an average FBS team). The best team that the Thundering Herd beat was a bad Navy team. ULL, meanwhile, tends to play relatively better against better teams, as they are 4-0 ATS against good teams since losing to Texas (all favored by less than 7 or getting points) while being just 2-5 ATS when favored by more than 7 points. That trend covers all 3 years with Levi Lewis as the starting quarterback, as the Ragin’ Cajuns are 11-3 ATS from -7 to underdog while being just 8-14 ATS favored by more than 7 points with Lewis at the helm.

This game will be a battle between Louisiana’s strong rushing attack and Marshall’s aerial attack.

ULL averages 216 rushing yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play and they’ll be facing a soft Marshall run defense that’s yielded 211 rush yards per game at 5.2 yprp to teams that would average only 4.6 yprp against an average team. Lewis had a down year throwing the ball (0.7 yards per pass play worse than average) and Marshall has a strong pass defense (0.9 yppp better than average) but the Ragin’ Cajuns are projected to run for 6.2 yprp and total 427 yards at 5.8 yards per play.

Marshall will need quarterback Grant Wells to play well because the Thundering Herd don’t have a dependable rush attack and are projected to average only 4.4 yprp against a better than average ULL run defense. Wells was 0.5 yppp better than average this season (7.7 yppp against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average QB) but Louisiana’s defense has been 0.5 yppp better than average (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.8 yppp against an average defense). The perfect dome conditions will make it easier for both teams to throw the ball, which aides the pass-oriented Thundering Herd more than it does the run-heavy Ragin’ Cajuns’ offense. Marshall is projected to gain 407 yards at 5.7 yppl.

The math model favors Louisiana-Lafayette by 3.8 points (with a total of 55.8points) but that doesn’t take into account a likely advantage of having more fans for this game, which is in New Orleans. That may be worth half a point to a point, but I still don’t want any part of this game.