Game Analysis

Note: This game has been canceled.

Lean – NC State (-2)  30   Ucla  25

Lean – Under (60)

This is the rare bowl game with no players opting out or key players deciding to transfer.

I was on UCLA early in the season and bet their season win total over 7 wins and the Bruins ended up 8-4 while being about 10 points better than an average FBS team. UCLA is led by experienced quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and DTR had a strong season, rating at 1.2 yards per pass play better than average (7.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while adding 745 yards on 110 runs (not including sacks, which are in my passing stats). Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown combined for 1752 rushing yards at 5.7 ypr and overall the Bruins’ offense is 1.0 yards per play better than average with DTR in the game (he missed the loss at Utah).

The NC State defense is 0.8 yards per play better than average, having allowed just 5.0 yppl and 19.7 points per game to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defense. The Wolfpack defense struggled a bit mid-season but were better over their final 4 games after moving LB Devon Betty into the starting lineup in week 10 and DE Davin Vann into the starting lineup starting in week 11. The defense allowed just 4.9 yppl to 2 good offensive teams (Wake Forest and North Carolina) and 2 mediocre attacks (Florida State without QB Travis and Syracuse), who would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for Milton at QB for FSU). I project UCLA to gain 384 yards at 6.2 yppl.

NC State also has an accomplished veteran quarterback in Devin Leary, who averaged 7.1 yppp and threw 35 touchdown passes against just 5 interceptions. NC State’s rushing attack is a bit better than average and overall the Wolfpack averaged 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack. That’s a bit better than a Bruins’ stop unit that yielded 5.7 yppl to teams that would average 6.0 yppl. NC State is projected to gain 402 yards at 5.9 yppl.

These teams are even from the line of scrimmage, but NC State has better special teams and Leary is less likely to turn it over than DTR. The math favors NC State by 3.4 points and 56.2 total points. I’ll lean with NC State and Under partially based on the math and partially based on the situation. UCLA applies to a 29-84-1 ATS bowl situation while NC State applies to a 37-8 Under situation that is a subset of the bowl game under after 3 or more straight overs angle.