Game Analysis

Note: The line on this game has moved down 4 points since I released it. It is obviously no longer a play.

Strong Opinion – Ucla (+25)  21   LSU  40

UCLA barely won at Hawaii and, after a week off, the Bruins were destroyed 13-42 at home by Indiana. UCLA is clearly a work in progress under a new coaching staff but I don’t think they’re bad enough to warrant such a huge line against an overrated LSU team that still can’t play defense.

Bruins’ quarterback Ethan Garbers has enough of a resume to suggest that he’s still a decent quarterback, as he averaged 6.8 yards per pass play last season (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp) and a decent 6.2 yppp through two games this season. Top running back TJ Harden has 1209 career rushing yards at 5.5 ypr and he will surely improve on the 2.7 ypr he’s averaged through two games – although I do expect the rushing attack to be worse than average in their new system.

UCLA’s defense was a top 10 unit last season but I expected them to be much worse without their top notch defensive coordinator (now at USC) and with 7 new starters but that unit still has the talent to be better than average and allowing 5.3 yppl to Hawaii and Indiana is not bad (I’d expect an average FBS team to allow 5.4 yppl to those teams).

LSU has a very good offense, and the Tigers should move the ball well and score a lot of points. However, the Tigers were worse than average (on a national scale) last season and they appear to be even worse on that side of the ball this year. Giving up 7.8 yppl to USC can be forgiven, but allowing Nicholls State to averaged 5.5 yppl and then giving up 6.5 yppl to a mediocre South Carolina attack are signs that the defense has gotten worse.

Overall, LSU has averaged 6.3 yppl on offense and the Tigers have allowed 6.6 yppl to a trio of teams that rate just a bit better than average as a group. LSU is 0-3 ATS and they are still overrated.

My ratings favor LSU by just 19 points, and I thought this line would be 20 or 21 points because the market thinks LSU is better than I do. The line opened at 23 points and went higher but UCLA would be a 56.3% bet even if the opening line of 23 points is the true line (24 and 25 are both key numbers). I still think the line should be 21 points at the most but I still don’t have enough information on UCLA after just two game to trust them as a Best Bet.

UCLA is a Strong Opinion at +24 points or more.