Game Analysis

Lean – Under (55.5) – Ucla (-14)  33   HAWAII  16

I expected Hawaii’s offense to be worse with star WR Steven McBride (no word on if or when he’ll be able to play this season), as McBride averaged 9.7 yards on his 106 targets last season while the rest of the wide receivers combined to average only 6.6 YPT. That equates to about 0.4 yards per pass play, which is significant for a team that throws the ball as often as the Rainbow Warriors do. However, they were much worse than I had expected in their unimpressive 35-14 win over a dreadfully bad Delaware State team that they were favored to beat by 40 points. Hawaii averaged just 5.6 yards per pass play and only 5.5 yards per play against a Delaware State defense that allowed 8.2 yppl last season against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 4.4 yppl against an average FBS defense – including 9.8 yppl allowed to Army and Miami-Ohio, the two FBS teams that they faced (both being worse than average FBS offensive teams). I projected Delaware State’s defense to go back to their normal range, which would be a defense that would allow 7.5 to 8.0 yards per play on the road to an average FBS offense. So, Hawaii managing just 5.5 yppl against such a bad defense is not a good omen, even accounting for the 16 to 25 mph winds in that game.

UCLA’s defense was elite last season (#7 in compensated yards per play allowed), but All-American DE Laiatu Latu was a 1st-Round NFL draft pick, and the Bruins have just 5 returning starters and a new defensive coordinator. I rate UCLA’s defense at #40 in the nation heading into this season, but they could be better given that the new defensive coordinator was on the Bruins’ defensive staff last season. Regardless, I don’t figure Hawaii to have much success moving the ball with any regularity in this game – particularly given how bad they were last week.

UCLA’s offense should be a bit better this season with the best of last season’s three quarterbacks in the starting role (the other two are gone). Ethan Garbers was 0.6 yards per pass play better than average on 157 pass plays last season and the top 3 receivers (in terms of yardage) are back this season. Running back TJ Harden has averaged 5.8 yards per run on his 200 career carries and former Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator, who has two Super Bowl rings, if the new OC for the Bruins and should have his team prepared. Most college OCs that come from the NFL tend to play at a slower than average pace but I’ll assume for now that UCLA will have an average plays per minute figure.

Hawaii’s defense isn’t as bad as their offense, as I rate that unit at just 0.4 yppl worse than average, but I project UCLA to gain 427 yards at 6.1 yppl in this game. Hawaii, however, is projected to tally just 282 total yards at only 4.3 yppl. I’d rather have UCLA minus the points than Hawaii, but I think the better play is the under. The Under is a Lean at 55 or higher.