Game Analysis

BYU (+3)  27   Ucla  26

BYU has played in two very close low scoring games against Pac 12 opponents, beating Arizona 18-16 in week 1 and losing 19-20 at Utah last week. I can certainly envision another close game against a Pac 12 foe for BYU this week.

UCLA is not as good as the media thought they’d be but they’re playing close to the level I had them rated (I had the Bruins ranked 25^th in my ratings heading into the season) and they are still better than BYU, who has not played as well so far as I thought they would. It’s becoming clear that BYU isn’t as good defensively without former head coach Bronco Mendenhall leading that unit. That fact is hidden by the 18 points per game the Cougars have allowed to Arizona and Utah, as that low point total has been the result of 8 takeaways on defense. BYU allowed 5.7 yards per play in those two games, which is still pretty good given the level of competition, but the Cougars’ defense is not as good as it was last season.

UCLA’s offense is also not as good as it was last season (just 5.9 yppl so far) and the Bruins’ defense, while still good, has slipped some too based on their early results (5.3 yppl allowed). Overall, my ratings favor UCLA by 3 points, so the line is fair, but BYU applies to a very good 141-48-2 ATS early season home underdog situation and I like their chances at home.