Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Central Florida (+2.5 -105)  31   TEXAS TECH  27

UCF is only 5-5 but the Golden Knights have outgained their opponents by 99 total yards per game and by 1.5 yards per play. UCF has outplayed their opponents by an average of 11.9 points from the line of scrimmage but have only outscored them by an average of 7.2 points per game. UCF is good enough to take Oklahoma to the final minute before losing by 2 and last week they beat a red-hot Oklahoma State team 45-3.

Texas Tech is a team that UCF should be able to beat, as the Red Raiders have only outplayed their opponents by 5.5 yppl to 5.3 yppl and their offense is worse with Behren Morton at quarterback, as he’s averaged only 5.7 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB).

Texas Tech has a good defense that rates at 0.5 yppl better than average but UCF’s offense has been 1.5 yppl better than average this season (7.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). The Knights also have an advantage over the Red Raiders’ offense, as UCF has been 0.4 yppl better than average on defense while Tech is 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively with Morton at quarterback.

There is no doubt that UCF will out play Texas Tech from the line of scrimmage and Tech’s +4.1 points per game in special teams is likely to regress, as is UCF’s -1.9 points per game in special teams.

The math favors UCF by 2.5 points even if the special teams value difference is as extreme as it has been, which is unlikely.

UCF is a Strong Opinion at +2 points or more.