UCF @

Kansas St.

Sat, Sep 23
Fox Sports 1
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 391
Odds: Kansas St. -6.5, Total: 52.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Central Florida (+6.5)  28   KANSAS STATE  29

Kansas State quarterback Will Howard has been upgraded to probable but I like UCF here even if Howard is at 100%. Golden Knights’ backup QB Timmy McClain is not likely to come close to how good John Rhys Plumlee was the first two weeks of the season (10.0 yards per pass play and 165 rushing yards on 18 runs), but McClain played well in his start against Villanova last week (even relative to the level of defense he faced) and he has experience as a full-time starter a couple of years ago at South Florida. I still rate UCF’s offense will about average and Kansas State hasn’t been that great defensively, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team – including giving up 7.0 yppl and 30 points last week to Missouri, the only better than average offense they’ve faced.

Kansas State’s offense has been great (1.1 yppl better than average) but UCF’s defense has been 1.1 yppl better than average too and while they may not be that good going forward (I rate them at 0.6 yppl better than average) they should be able compete against the Wildcats’ offense.

I will Lean with UCF at +5 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • UCF
  • Kansas St.
UCF
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 46.0 33.0
  • Run Yards 308.0 134.7
  • YPRP 6.7 4.1




Pass





  • Pass Comp 21.7 11.7
  • Pass Att 31.0 27.3
  • Comp % 69.9% 42.7%
  • Pass Yards 327.7 155.7
  • Sacks 0.7 2.0
  • Sack Yards 3.0 14.7
  • Sack % 2.1% 6.8%
  • Pass Plays 31.7 29.3
  • Net Pass Yards 324.7 141.0
  • YPPP 10.3 4.8

Total

  • Total Plays 77.7 62.3
  • Total Yards 632.7 275.7
  • YPPL 8.1 4.4

TO


  • Int 1.3 1.0
  • Int % 4.3% 3.7%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.0
  • Turnovers 1.7 1.0
 
  • Points 40.7 12.0
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