Game Analysis

Lean – Brigham Young (-6)  47   Central Florida  37

Lean – Over (78)

Both teams should have success offensively in this game given the elite quarterbacks on each side and worse than average pass defenses.

It’s pretty obvious that BYU, with future NFL 1^st-round draft pick Zach Wilson, will be able to throw the ball against UCF. Wilson has completed 73.2% of his passes and averaged a very impressive 10.1 yards per pass play despite facing a schedule of mostly solid defensive teams that would allow just 6.3 yppp to an average FBS quarterback. UCF’s aggressive style of pass defense tries to limit easy completions (only 57.8% allowed) but the Golden Knights given up too many big plays as a consequence (14.0 yards per completion allowed) and that’s going to be tragic for them against an quarterback that is very accurate throwing the ball down the field and has averaged 14.8 yards per completion, which is incredible given his 73% completion rate. UCF defends the run a bit better than average but BYU is projected to average 8.3 yards per play in this game (7.9 is their average with Wilson in the game this season) and the Cougars should easily surpass their 40.7 points per game average given the extra possessions they’ll get due to UCF’s fast tempo. BYU only runs 65.3 plays per game but the Golden Knights run their offense at a blistering pace, which will give the ball back to BYU more often. I project the Cougars with two extra possessions than they normally have and 75.6 plays from scrimmage.

BYU has only allowed 14.7 points per game but the Cougars have faced a schedule of mostly sub-par offensive teams that run their attack at an average to slow pace. BYU is only 0.1 yards per play better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average defense) and they’ve faced just 62.9 plays per game. UCF averages 85 plays per game and is projected at 79.9 plays in this game. Not only will BYU be facing more plays but UCF’s offense, which has been 1.2 yppl better than average (6.9 yppl with QB Dillon Gabriel in the game, against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team), is much better than what the Cougars have faced all season. BYU is good defending the run (0.6 yprp better than average) but UCF doesn’t mind throwing the ball if they’re having trouble running it (52 pass plays against Tulsa and 51 pass plays against Cincy) and BYU doesn’t defend the pass well, as the 5.8 yppp they’ve allowed has come against quarterbacks that would average only 5.3 yppp against an average defensive team. The Cougars only faced two better than average quarterbacks this season, against Houston and Coastal Carolina (they faced 3^rd and 4^th stringers against Boise), and they allowed 7.6 yppp in those two games. My math projects 8.9 yppp for Gabriel in this game and 563 total yards at 7.0 yppl. UCF averages 44.3 points per game and BYU’s defense rates about the same as the average defense that the Knights have faced this season. However, BYU’s offense runs at a slower pace than the team’s the UCF has faced so the Knights aren’t likely to reach their points per game average – although they could get close to it if they decide to throw the ball more often than they usually do.

The math is projecting a lot of points and a 10-point win for BYU.