Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Central Florida (+4)  32   BAYLOR  29

Baylor’s only two wins by more than 3 points this season have been against horrible teams Samford (won by 35 favored by 51.5 points) and Oklahoma State (won by 18 favored by 21 points). I don’t think it’s likely that the Bears will win this game by more than 3 points, which has been the case against every decent team they’ve faced. Baylor is just 1-7 ATS and they’re facing an underrated UCF team that’s significantly improved on offense with Tayven Jackson now starting at quarterback.

The Knights began the season with Cam Fancher starting behind center before being replaced in week 1 by Jackson. Fancher also played 1.5 more games after Jackson got injured in week 6, but Jackson returned in my Best Bet win on the Knights against West Virginia and I expect him to have another good game against a worse than average Baylor defense.

Fancher has been 2.4 yards per pass play worse than an average FBS quarterback on his 75 pass plays season, which has made UCF’s offense appear to be worse than it is. Jackson has been only slightly better than average, but UCF has a good ground game (5.8 yprp against FBS teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) and the Knights are 0.5 yppl better than average offensively with Jackson behind center.

Baylor’s defense has allowed an average of 35.3 points (in regulation) to 7 FBS teams but the Bears are actually just 0.2 yppl worse than average after adjusting for opposing offenses faced. UCF has a 0.7 yppl advantage against that unit and the Golden Knights are projected to tally 451 yards at 6.2 yppl in this game.

Baylor’s offense has struggled the last two weeks in losses to TCU and Cincinnati and the Bears have been just 0.4 yppl better than average for the season on offense, which is well below what was expected of them. UCF has been solid defensively, allowing an average of just 18.8 points and 4.9 yppl in 6 games against FBS teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. The Knights have faced 3 good offensive teams (Kansas State with star RB Dylan Edwards healthy, Kansas and Cincinnati) and they allowed a respectable 27 points per game against those teams. I project Baylor with 422 yards at 6.0 yppl.

Basically, these teams are equal on offense (with Jackson at QB for UCF) and UCF has the better defense. UCF is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 points or more (Strong Opinion at +3 -110 odds or better).