Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Alabama Birmingham (+10)  32   UTSA  36

UTSA has been 0.7 yppl worse than average in Frank Harris’ 3 starts at quarterback, averaging 5.9 yppl against a trio of bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppl to an average team. Not having last year’s top receiver Zakhari Franklin and last year’s leader in yards per target De’Corian Clark (9.9 ypt in 2022) is the cause for the decline in offense this season and it looks like Clark will redshirt after trying to play last week (3 snaps before leaving).

I do expect the Roadrunners attack to be significantly better going forward but they were only +0.5 yppl last season with those two great receivers and aren’t likely to be much better than average offensively even with Harris back. However, UTSA should score plenty of points against a sub-par UAB defense that’s been 0.7 yppl worse than average but the Blazers are good enough offensively to stay competitive.

UAB’s attack has averaged over 450 yards and rates at 0.5 yppl better than average after factoring out garbage time stats. They should score more than 30 points in perfect scoring conditions (UTSA plays in a dome) against a mediocre UTSA defense (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). I project UAB’s ball-control pass attack (they average 74 offensive plays per game) to average 6.1 yppl, which should be enough to keep them within 10 points as long as turnovers are even (both teams projected at 1.4 turnovers).

UAB is a Strong Opinion at +10 -115 odds or better.