Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Ohio (-6 ½)  34   Alabama-Birmingham  21

Lean – Under (59)

Ohio is a borderline Best Bet and I’d be more willing to pull the trigger if I knew the status of Bobcats’ running back Dorian Brown and WR Brendan Pope. Brown is listed as questionable with a hip injury that kept him out of Ohio’s regular season finale and Pope, who also missed that game, is questionable with an ankle injury. Brown is important because fellow running back A.J. Quellette was injured early in that final game and he’s listed as doubtful to play. Quellette is the team’s leading rusher with 980 yards at 5.3 yards per rush but I’d be fine with him out if Brown is ready to go since Brown has 605 yards at an even better 6.1 ypr. However, if Brown is out too that leaves the bulk of the running back carries to Julian Ross, who averaged only 4.3 ypr on 19 carries in the loss at Buffalo and averaged only 3.9 ypr on 54 runs over the course of the season. Quarterback Nathan Rourke will still be able to move the chains with his legs, as he ran for 969 yards on 116 runs this season (8.4 yprp), but Ohio’s rushing attack (6.3 yprp against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp to an average attack) would be projected at just 0.3 yprp better than average if Brown doesn’t play (and may not be as good if Brown does play if he’s not 100%). The injury to Pope isn’t quite as vital, as Ohio’s pass attack would only take a hit of 0.3 yards per pass play if he doesn’t play and the Bobcats don’t throw the ball that often. Ohio’s offense has averaged 6.4 yards per play against FBS teams this season and the Bobcats rate at 0.5 yppl better than average – all thanks to Rourke’s running ability. However, if Brown and Pope are both out then I’d rate Ohio’s attack as just average.

UAB has good raw defensive numbers (5.4 yppl allowed) but the Blazers faced mostly bad offensive teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl against an average team, so Ohio should be able to move the ball at a better than average clip even if they are without Brown and Pope. My model projects 429 yards at 6.5 yppl for Ohio with Brown and Pope at 100% and 396 yards at 6.0 yppl if Brown and Pope both miss this game. I’ll split the difference in my math model.

UAB was a surprising 8-4 and 8-3-1 ATS, which is a good record for a team that was out-gained by 20 total yards per game in 11 games against FBS competition. The Blazers were better than their stats thanks to variance in 3 key areas. UAB was +3 in defensive touchdowns, had a 48% to 40% edge in 3^rd & 4^th down conversion rate and averaged a ridiculously lucky 5.8 points per redzone opportunity while their opponents averaged only 4.4 points per RZ. A team that averaged 5.5 yppl and allowed 5.4 yppl should not have such significant advantages in 3^rd & 4^th down conversion rates and especially shouldn’t have such a huge edge in redzone scoring efficiency. The best offensive teams in the nation wouldn’t be expected to average anywhere close to 5.8 points per redzone chance and UAB’s defensive stats would predicted 4.8 PPRZ, which is about the same as their offensive expectation. The difference in redzone scoring, compared to what would be expected of a team with UAB’s statistical profile, equates to 5.0 points per game of redzone luck. UAB had an average scoring margin of +2.9 points in 11 games against FBS opponents with an average overall rating of -15.5 points and they would have been outscored by that collection of really bad teams had it not been for the extreme positive variance.

The reality is that UAB is 0.4 yards per play worse than average defensively and are an even worse 0.9 yppl worse than average on offense (5.5 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average team). That attack is at a disadvantage against an Ohio defense that is only 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl). The math model projects only 331 yards at 4.9 yppl for UAB and assumes that their points per redzone opportunity is in line with what would be expected from a team that is below average overall offensively.

In addition to being below average offensively and defensively, UAB also has horrible special teams, as the Blazers are -4.8 in net yards per punt differential and -3.0 yards in net starting kickoff field position. UAB has a good kicker (+0.4 points per game better than average) but Ohio’s kicker is one of the best in the nation at +0.8 points per game better than average (15 of 16 on FG attempts of less than 50 yards). My math model favors Ohio by 12 ½ points if redzone scoring is normal and the math would still favor the Bobcats by 8 points even if UAB continues to be far outside the normal range in points per RZ. If Brown and Pope both miss this game then the math would favor Ohio by 9 ½ points, so the Bobcats are still the right side to be on from a mathematical perspective.

Bowl games are often about which team is more focused while preparing for their bowl game and that is an area that likely favors UAB, as most of the players on this team were there when there actually wasn’t a team and all they did was practice while waiting for this season to come. It’s incredible that the Blazers were as successful as they’ve been in their first season back playing football but much of that success was a mirage. So, despite UAB’s players being incredibly fired up to be representing their school in this bowl game I will stick with the math and I’ll consider Ohio a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less and I’ll lean with the under.

Note: Ohio RB A.J. Quellette WR Brendan Pope have both been upgraded to probable but neither is as important as #2 rusher Dorian Brown (6.6 ypr) and while I like Ohio a bit more now I will maintain my Strong Opinion rating.