Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Army Team Total Under (27.5 -120)

ARMY (-10)  21   Tulsa  16

Army’s option offense has averaged only 4.4 yards per rushing play and 4.8 yards per play this season despite facing a collection of defensive units that would combine to allow 5.5 yprp and 6.2 yppl to an average offense. Army has averaged just 22 points per game and today they’re facing a Tulsa defense that is better than the average defenses that the Knights have faced. Tulsa would allow just 5.2 yppl to an average team (5.1 yprp is the national average) and their defense overall is just 0.2 yppl worse than average, which is 0.3 yppl better than the average defense that Army has faced.

Tulsa does run their offense at a fast pace, which should lead to Army having one more possession than normal, but my math model projects just 322 total yards (at 4.8 yppl), which is less yards than Army’s season average. The Black Knights have scored more than 27 points just twice all season and they’re facing a defense that is the fourth toughest on their schedule. The only teams that Army has scored more than 27 points against have bad defensive units (North Texas is 0.4 yppl worse than average and UAB is 0.8 yppl worse than average). That is not the case here.

I project just 21 points for Army in this game and the Army Team Total Under is a Strong Opinion at 27.5 to -135 odds. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is Tulsa at +10 or more.