Game Analysis

Note: The line has shot up since I posted this Lean. Tulane was only a Lean at -4 or less.

Lean – Tulane (-3.5)  32   UTSA  24

I bet UTSA under 7.5 wins before the season started and a loss tonight would secure a winning ticket for me. I projected the Roadrunners to be 6.1 points worse than an average FBS team and so far they’ve been 7.6 points worse than average while rating at 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.6 yppl worse than average on defense.

Tulane ahs been 5.5 points better than an average team so far this season while being 0.4 yppl better than average on offense and 0.1 yppl better than average defensively.

UTSA will need a couple of big plays from star RB Robert Henry Jr. to keep this game competitive, as quarterback Own McCown is terrible (just 5.5 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB).