Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Tulane (-3.5)  34   MEMPHIS  21

I didn’t expect Tulane to be as good this season as they were last year when they went 12-2 and beat USC in their bowl game, but the Green Wave have been better than expected thanks to an improved defense under new defensive coordinator Shiel Woods, who did a great job in his one season at Troy last year. Tulane has yielded just 17.4 points per game and the one seemingly poor defensive game (37 points allowed to Ole Miss) was actually a great effort given that the Wave allowed just 5.8 yards per play to an elite Rebels’ attack that would average 7.1 yppl on the road against an average FBS team. Tulane has been 0.7 yppl better than average defensively and aren’t likely to give up too much more than their average scoring against a mediocre Memphis attack that’s averaged their 6.0 yppl in FBS games against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average offense.

Tulane had to do without star QB Michael Pratt for a couple of games but they’ve scored 37 points, 36 points, and 35 points in the 3 games that Pratt has played while averaging 7.5 yppl in those games (vs teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team). I don’t think Tulane’s offense is that good, as Pratt has one nearly perfect game in week 1 (14 of 15 passing for 294 yards) but the Green Wave attack has been 0.7 yppl better than average in the two games since Pratt returned from injury, which is about what I expect going forward.

The Wave should have no problems moving the ball in this game against a Memphis defense that’s been 1.2 yppl worse than average in 4 games against FBS teams. They had an easy time against a dreadful Arkansas State offense (before they upgraded at QB) in week 2 but have given up an average of 498 yards at 7.5 yppl in 3 games since to Navy, Missouri, and Boise State, who would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. Tulane should move the ball consistently well by ground and by air in this game and top 30 points, as they’ve done in 9 of Pratt’s last 11 starts, including all 3 this season.

Tulane is a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 and for 1-Star up to -5.