Game Analysis

Note: This Best Bet was released when the line was 13.5 points. The number has come down to 10 and Tulane is now just a Lean.

2-Star Best Bet – **Tulane (+13.5)  23   Florida  28

My math model would have favored Florida by only 2.9 points in this game if both teams fielded the squads that they had at the end of the regular season. However, Tulane will be without star quarterback Darian Mensah, who had a great season, and two key defensive players are out for the Green Wave. However, it seems that the market has over adjusted for those losses.

Former Oregon backup quarterback Ty Thompson will get the start for Tulane, and he was a top-10 rated quarterback coming out of high school in 2021. Thompson was expected to be the starter, but Mensah beat him out in the summer and that decision certainly seems to have the right one given that Mensah averaged 8.3 yards per pass play against FBS opponents that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. I’ll assume that Thompson will not be that good (although he has the talent to be better), but head coach Jon Sumrall and his OC Joe Craddock had much less talented quarterbacks at Troy that averaged 7.1 yppp in 2022 and 2023 and I’d expect Thompson to be at least that good in this system given his talent level. To be on the conservative side, I’ll assume Thompson would have averaged at 7.1 yppp this season had he been the starter, which is about a 3-point difference from Mensah.

I rate Tulane’s offense at 0.3 yppl better than average if Thompson plays at the level of the Troy quarterbacks the last 2 seasons under the Tulane coach/OC – although he’s much more talented and is likely to be better. Florida’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average, so Tulane should move the ball at a reasonable level (I project 358 yards at 5.3 yppl).

Tulane will be missing two contributors from the defensive line, as Matthew Fobbs-White and Parker Peterson have already committed to other schools. Potential opt-out S Caleb Ransaw is on the updated bowl depth chart, so I’ll assume he’ll play. The impact of Fobbs-White and Peterson, who combined for 6.5 sacks, is just 1.2 points given the low number of plays that Florida is expected to run in this game. The Green Wave were 0.2 yppl better than average defensively this season and I rate that unit as average without the two defensive linemen that have transferred.

Florida’s offense is more boom or bust with DJ Lagway at quarterback than it was when Graham Mertz (77% completions) was getting most of the snaps. Overall, the two quarterbacks are the same on a compensated yards per pass play basis but Lagway is more interception prone (7 picks on 157 passes while Mertz threw just 2 interceptions on 94 passes). Florida rates at 1.1 yppl better than average offensively but they were also -14.2 in play differential this season, which was due to the big plays and 3-and-outs that come with Lagway at quarterback. I project a -12 play differential for Florida in this game and Tulane runs their offense at a very slow pace, which leads a projection of just 53 plays from scrimmage for the Gators (excluding kneel downs). They are projected to average 6.9 yppl, but that would lead to just 368 total yards.

Overall, the math favors Florida by just 7.1 points even with a point added for playing in Tampa. The line on this game opened at 9.5 points when it was already known that Mensah was going to transfer. The game was then bet up to 14 before coming back down to 13.5 points even though Mensah’s absence was already factored into the spread. Even if 9.5 was the fair line, which is about as high as I could make it, then Tulane would have a 58.9% chance of covering at +13.5 points and would still be a 54.7% bet at +11.

In addition to the line value, Florida applies to a 12-62-1 ATS minor bowl game big favorite situation and the Gators apply to a 17-59-2 ATS bow situation based on their 3 game straight up and spread win streak. The record is 0-3 ATS when those two situations apply to the same team.

Tulane is a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 or more and 1-Star down to +11.