Game Analysis
Lean – Under (45.5) – Tulane (-17) 29 EAST CAROLINA 10
East Carolina has one of the worst offenses in the nation (3.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and they’re likely to score below their 15.0 points per game average against a good Tulane defense that’s been 0.5 yppl better than average and allowed just 10 total points to the two below average offensive teams they’ve faced (Southern Miss and Nicholls), who are both better offensively than ECU.
East Carolina’s defense isn’t too bad (0.5 yppl worse than average) and their ability to defend the run (0.4 yards per rushing play better than average) matches up well against a run-first Tulane offense.
I wanted to release the under as a play when it was sitting at 48 on Monday but the total moved down before I could send it out. I still see value though. I lean Under 45 points or more.
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.0
24.6
-
Run Yards
192.3
101.5
-
YPRP
5.3
4.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.8
23.6
-
Pass Att
25.6
36.3
-
Comp %
65.4%
65.2%
-
Pass Yards
234.8
249.3
-
Sacks
1.8
3.0
-
Sack Yards
12.1
20.3
-
Sack %
6.4%
7.6%
-
Pass Plays
27.4
39.3
-
Net Pass Yards
222.6
229.0
-
YPPP
8.1
5.8
Total
-
Total Plays
63.4
63.9
-
Total Yards
414.9
330.5
-
YPPL
6.5
5.2
TO
-
Int
0.6
1.3
-
Int %
2.5%
3.4%
-
Fumbles
1.0
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.6
1.9
Rush
-
Run Plays
29.0
31.1
-
Run Yards
127.6
141.6
-
YPRP
4.4
4.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.4
18.4
-
Pass Att
35.9
30.6
-
Comp %
48.6%
60.3%
-
Pass Yards
158.7
257.4
-
Sacks
2.7
1.3
-
Sack Yards
20.3
9.1
-
Sack %
7.0%
4.0%
-
Pass Plays
38.6
31.9
-
Net Pass Yards
138.4
248.3
-
YPPP
3.6
7.8
Total
-
Total Plays
67.6
63.0
-
Total Yards
266.0
389.9
-
YPPL
3.9
6.2
TO
-
Int
1.3
0.6
-
Int %
3.6%
1.9%
-
Fumbles
0.1
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.4
1.0
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 South Alabama |
37-17 |
-6.5
W
|
35/27 |
144/104 |
4.1/3.9 |
3/3 |
14/23 |
15/30 |
289/158 |
0/2 |
1/5 |
18.1/4.5 |
433/262 |
8.5/4.2 |
| 09/09/23 Mississippi |
20-37 |
+13.0
L
|
41/31 |
171/106 |
4.2/3.4 |
1/0 |
15/18 |
37/28 |
190/257 |
1/1 |
4/4 |
4.6/8.0 |
361/363 |
4.4/5.8 |
| 09/16/23 @ Southern Miss |
21-3 |
-8.0
W
|
31/24 |
160/71 |
5.2/3.0 |
0/0 |
12/19 |
19/34 |
166/151 |
0/0 |
3/4 |
7.5/4.0 |
326/222 |
6.2/3.6 |
| 09/23/23 Nicholls State |
36-7 |
0.0
W
|
26/23 |
173/98 |
6.7/4.3 |
1/0 |
23/24 |
30/39 |
258/204 |
2/4 |
2/3 |
8.1/4.9 |
431/302 |
7.4/4.6 |
| 09/30/23 UAB |
35-23 |
-21.5
L
|
40/36 |
266/184 |
6.7/5.1 |
2/1 |
14/28 |
23/36 |
181/249 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
7.5/6.6 |
447/433 |
7.0/5.9 |
| 10/13/23 @ Memphis |
31-21 |
-3.5
W
|
34/16 |
162/67 |
4.8/4.2 |
0/0 |
19/24 |
30/43 |
252/299 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
8.1/6.5 |
414/366 |
6.4/5.9 |
| 10/21/23 North Texas |
35-28 |
-20.0
L
|
46/22 |
246/91 |
5.3/4.1 |
1/1 |
15/35 |
21/51 |
194/334 |
1/0 |
0/2 |
9.2/6.3 |
440/425 |
6.6/5.7 |
| 10/28/23 @ Rice |
30-28 |
-10.0
L
|
35/18 |
216/91 |
6.2/5.1 |
0/0 |
22/18 |
30/29 |
251/180 |
1/1 |
2/1 |
7.8/6.0 |
467/271 |
7.0/5.6 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 @ Michigan |
3-30 |
+36.0
W
|
26/31 |
103/150 |
4.0/4.8 |
0/0 |
15/26 |
29/31 |
112/290 |
1/0 |
0/0 |
3.9/9.4 |
215/440 |
3.9/7.1 |
| 09/09/23 Marshall |
13-31 |
+3.0
L
|
35/35 |
161/159 |
4.6/4.5 |
0/1 |
13/17 |
31/30 |
108/196 |
2/0 |
3/2 |
3.2/6.1 |
269/355 |
3.9/5.3 |
| 09/16/23 @ Appalachian State |
28-43 |
+9.5
L
|
24/42 |
136/237 |
5.7/5.6 |
0/1 |
19/17 |
33/29 |
114/237 |
3/1 |
4/1 |
3.1/7.9 |
250/474 |
4.1/6.6 |
| 09/23/23 Gardner-Webb |
44-0 |
0.0
W
|
40/39 |
200/127 |
5.0/3.3 |
1/5 |
18/8 |
32/21 |
172/40 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
4.9/1.8 |
372/167 |
5.0/2.7 |
| 09/30/23 @ Rice |
17-24 |
+3.5
L
|
35/18 |
162/47 |
4.6/2.6 |
0/0 |
21/19 |
44/34 |
229/231 |
1/1 |
3/1 |
4.9/6.6 |
391/278 |
4.8/5.2 |
| 10/12/23 SMU |
10-31 |
+12.0
L
|
36/20 |
110/62 |
3.1/3.1 |
1/0 |
17/19 |
39/38 |
152/273 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
3.7/7.0 |
262/335 |
3.4/5.7 |
| 10/21/23 Charlotte |
7-10 |
-6.5
L
|
17/46 |
58/186 |
3.4/4.0 |
0/1 |
15/11 |
32/18 |
69/144 |
0/1 |
2/0 |
2.0/8.0 |
127/330 |
2.5/5.2 |
| 10/28/23 @ UTSA |
27-41 |
+18.5
W
|
30/26 |
163/150 |
5.4/5.8 |
0/0 |
22/20 |
43/34 |
185/367 |
1/1 |
5/4 |
3.9/9.7 |
348/517 |
4.5/8.1 |
Tulane
@ 
East Carolina