Game Analysis

Lean – OLD DOMINION (-10)  33   Troy  19

Old Dominion endured a mid-season slump but I played them last week in their 31-6 romp over UL Monroe and I see value on the side of the Monarchs in this game. Troy has won and covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games (last week being the exception) but their average game rating based on forward looking metrics is slightly worse in those 6 games than their season rating, which pegs the Trojans as 9.3 points worse than an average team. Given that ODU is a better than average team and playing at home, this line should be considerably higher than 10 points.

Old Dominion has an offense that has averaged 6.9 yards per play this season against FBS opponents and rates at 0.9 yppl better than average after factoring in opposing defenses faced. ODU has a good defense too, as they’ve yielded just 5.4 yppl (with starters in the game) to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average FBS defense.

Troy is 1.0 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (on a national scale) and I think this line should be higher than 14 points. In fact, I would have made Old Dominion a Best Bet in this game if not for a 110-41-3 ATS situation that favors Troy.

I’ll make ODU a Lean at -10 or less.