Game Analysis

JAMES MADISON (-23.5)  35   Troy  9

James Madison is in the running for a playoff spot and the Dukes’ elite defense should dominate this game against a bad Troy attack. Troy has averaged only 4.9 yards per play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. I rate Troy at 1.0 yppl worse than average with Goose Crowder at quarterback and I project just 207 yards at 3.6 yppl and the Trojans have averaged just 8 points in two games against better than average defensive teams Clemson and Old Dominion – neither of which is close to as good defensively as James Madison’s defense. JMU has yielded just 16 points per game and 4.2 yppl (with starters in the game) to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average FBS defense.

James Madison improved offensively as the season progressed and the Dukes enter this game at 0.4 yppl better than an average FBS team on the attack side of the ball. Troy’s defense is 0.3 yppl worse than average, which is the same level as the schedule of teams that JMU averaged 37.8 points against.