Game Analysis

Lean – Toledo (+3.5)  22   Wyoming  21

Toledo would have been a solid favorite in this game, but Wyoming became the bettors’ choice when Rockets’ dual-threat QB Dequan Finn decided to enter the transfer portal. That would not have been enough for me to favor the Cowboys in this game, but Wednesday night news that MAC Player of the Year RB Peny Boone was entering the transfer portal will make it tougher for the Rockets – especially with Wyoming players likely to give an inspired effort in hopes of sending their beloved head coach Craig Bohl to retirement with a victory in his final game.

Boone ran for 1400 yards at an impressive 7.2 yards per rush while backup Jacquez Stewart averaged a sub-par 4.7 ypr on his 101 runs this season. Finn averaged 7.5 yards per pass play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 6.8 yppp to an average FBS quarterback and he also ran for 656 yards on 109 runs (not including sacks, which I count as pass plays). Backup Tucker Gleason should get the start in this game, and he started two games and played most of 3 games last season and shouldn’t be overwhelmed by this opportunity. Gleason has been 0.3 yppp worse than average on his 152 career pass plays (6.7 yppp against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp) but he’s also a good runner, averaging 7.25 yards average on his 36 career runs, which is higher than Finn’s average (although I won’t assume he’s a better runner based on 36 runs). Toledo was 0.6 yards per play better than average offensively this season, but I rate the Rockets’ attack at 0.6 yppl worse than average without Finn and Boone (although Boone has not officially announced that he won’t play in this game, as of Friday) and their starting left guard.

Wyoming’s defense has been 0.4 yppl better than average this season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl) and they haven’t lost any significant players (only a CB that wasn’t starting down the stretch). I project 299 yards at 4.8 yppl for Toledo.

Wyoming’s offense is predicated on the running of Harrison Waylee, who averaged 5.9 ypr and gained 856 yards on 9 games. The Cowboys struggled to run the ball in the 3 games that Waylee missed but were 0.3 yprp better than average with their star back. Quarterback Andrew Peasley adds the running attack but he’s a very inconsistent passer- having a couple of games averaging over 10 yards per pass play and a couple of games averaging 2.3 yppp or less. Overall, Peasley was 0.9 yppp worse than average throwing the ball but he only threw 5 interceptions on 241 pass attempts, as he takes off running rather than forcing throws into coverage.

Toledo’s defense was 0.1 yppl better than average this season (5.0 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to 5.1 yppl against an average defense) and the Rockets’ stop unit appears to be intact for this bowl game. I project 336 yards at 5.3 yppl for Wyoming.

The math favors Wyoming by 3.2 points with 42.2 total points and Toledo applies to a 76-15-1 ATS bowl underdog situation that is 2-1 so far this season (won with Duke and Kentucky lost with Oregon State). I’ll lean with Toledo at +3 or more based on the strong situation.