Game Analysis

Lean – Toledo (+1)  21   WASHINGTON STATE  17

Lean – Under (45.5)

Washington State has played well the last two weeks against Ole Miss and Virginia teams that were likely unmotivated by a strange non-conference opponent in the middle of conference play. Even if I give full credit for the Cougars good play in those games I still favor Toledo in this game.

Washington State is certainly better with Levi Eckhaus at quarterback the last 4 games but they’re still barely better than an average team, as I rate the Cougars at 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively with Eckhaus at quarterback and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively.

Toledo, meanwhile, has better 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and the Rockets have a very good defense that ranks as the 23rd best unit in the nation. Toledo has given up just 3.4 yards per rushing play, 4.7 yards per pass play, and 4.0 yppl to FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing the worst of Kentucky’s two quarterbacks and Western Michigan’s better QB).

So, we have Toledo’s defense being 1.2 yppl better than Washington State’s offense with Eckhaus at quarterback and the Cougars’ defense being 0.2 yppl better than Toledo’s offense. Washington State runs their offense at a very slow pace (and Toledo is a bit slower than average) and double-digit wind and rain are expected in Pullman on Saturday afternoon (weather conditions are 3.5 points worse than average for scoring).

My math model favors Toledo by 4 points with just 38 total points.