Game Analysis

Toledo (-4.5)  23.5   MIAMI-OHIO  19 (no opinion on the side)

This game is hard to pick, as the math model favors Toledo 8.5 points with Finn out for Miami-Ohio but the Rockets have the nation’s most extreme difference in performance between home games and road games.

Toledo is 5-0 straight up and 5-0 ATS at home while winning by an average of 40 points and scoring 42 points or more in every home game, including 42 points against a solid Northern Illinois defense in their most recent game. Toledo has covered the spread by an average margin of 20.0 points per game at home.

However, the Rockets are 0-4 straight up on the road with 1 spread win by just 2 points while scoring an average of just 14.8 points per game with an average line differential of -12.0 points per game.

The underlying predictive metrics don’t have nearly as extreme of a differential between home and road games as the actual scores, and lead me to taking 4.0 points off the math predicted margin using all games. That gets me to Toledo by 4.5 points and I really have no opinion at all on the side.

I would rather have the under though given how much worse Toledo’s offense has been on the road while their defense has been good regardless of location.