Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Toledo (-10) 38 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 23
Lean – Over 54
Central Michigan has one of the worst defensive teams in the nation (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average defense) and Toledo is the only good offensive team they’ve faced since given up 9.1 yppl to Notre Dame in week 3. The Rockets haven’t faced a defense as bad as CMU’s defense since scoring 41 points at UMass and they’ve averaged 42.5 points in 4 games against bad defensive teams this season (49 vs W Mich, 41 vs UMass, 31 vs Buffalo, and 49 vs E Mich).
The Chippewas have been a bit better offensively lately but they’ve mostly struggled to move the ball against better defensive teams and their offense (-0.3 yppl worse than average) is not as good as Toledo’s defense, which is average on a national scale. The Rockets have allowed an average of 22.5 points this season to a schedule of teams that have the same average offensive rating as Central Michigan has.
Last season Toledo lost two straight games after wrapping up their division but they’ve vowed not to let that happen again this season and have a chance at being rated as the top Group of 5 team with an outside shot at a New Year’s 6 bowl game. They should be ready to play.
Toledo is a Strong Opinion at -10 -115 or better
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.9
33.6
-
Run Yards
223.0
159.5
-
YPRP
6.0
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.3
16.7
-
Pass Att
25.6
31.9
-
Comp %
63.7%
52.4%
-
Pass Yards
213.3
194.6
-
Sacks
0.7
2.5
-
Sack Yards
6.9
16.1
-
Sack %
2.7%
7.3%
-
Pass Plays
26.3
34.4
-
Net Pass Yards
206.4
178.5
-
YPPP
7.8
5.2
Total
-
Total Plays
63.2
68.0
-
Total Yards
429.4
338.0
-
YPPL
6.8
5.0
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.0
-
Int %
3.1%
3.1%
-
Fumbles
1.0
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.8
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.9
31.1
-
Run Yards
178.6
165.1
-
YPRP
5.0
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.1
19.4
-
Pass Att
27.1
30.9
-
Comp %
55.7%
62.6%
-
Pass Yards
178.4
259.6
-
Sacks
2.0
1.6
-
Sack Yards
12.7
8.5
-
Sack %
6.9%
5.0%
-
Pass Plays
29.1
32.6
-
Net Pass Yards
165.6
251.1
-
YPPP
5.7
7.7
Total
-
Total Plays
65.0
63.6
-
Total Yards
344.3
416.2
-
YPPL
5.3
6.5
TO
-
Int
1.0
0.5
-
Int %
3.7%
1.5%
-
Fumbles
0.3
0.2
-
Turnovers
1.3
0.6
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/23 @ Illinois |
28-30 |
+9.5
W
|
41/32 |
202/172 |
4.9/5.4 |
0/0 |
19/18 |
35/26 |
215/203 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
6.0/7.3 |
417/375 |
5.4/6.3 |
| 09/09/23 Texas Southern |
71-3 |
0.0
W
|
43/35 |
187/175 |
4.3/5.0 |
0/1 |
27/9 |
32/21 |
371/63 |
0/1 |
0/5 |
11.6/2.4 |
558/238 |
7.4/3.9 |
| 09/16/23 San Jose St. |
21-17 |
-7.0
L
|
32/23 |
247/77 |
7.7/3.3 |
2/0 |
13/24 |
23/41 |
82/193 |
1/1 |
1/5 |
3.4/4.2 |
329/270 |
5.9/3.9 |
| 09/23/23 Western Mich |
49-31 |
-21.5
L
|
42/52 |
273/256 |
6.5/4.9 |
2/2 |
14/13 |
24/26 |
205/143 |
2/2 |
0/3 |
8.5/4.9 |
478/399 |
7.2/4.9 |
| 09/30/23 Northern Ill |
35-33 |
-13.5
L
|
43/30 |
261/195 |
6.1/6.5 |
1/1 |
16/21 |
20/31 |
281/249 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
14.1/7.5 |
542/444 |
8.6/7.0 |
| 10/07/23 @ Massachusetts |
41-24 |
-19.0
L
|
39/30 |
375/191 |
9.6/6.4 |
0/0 |
15/20 |
23/31 |
139/248 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
6.0/7.5 |
514/439 |
8.3/7.0 |
| 10/14/23 @ Ball St. |
13-6 |
-17.0
L
|
43/38 |
219/167 |
5.1/4.4 |
1/0 |
15/4 |
27/16 |
166/38 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
6.1/2.4 |
385/205 |
5.5/3.8 |
| 10/21/23 @ Miami Ohio |
21-17 |
-2.0
W
|
42/25 |
183/123 |
4.4/4.9 |
0/1 |
16/17 |
28/36 |
148/185 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
5.1/4.7 |
331/308 |
4.7/4.8 |
| 10/31/23 Buffalo |
31-13 |
-15.0
W
|
33/43 |
182/177 |
5.5/4.1 |
3/0 |
12/14 |
19/41 |
173/147 |
1/2 |
0/1 |
9.1/3.5 |
355/324 |
6.8/3.8 |
| 11/08/23 Eastern Mich |
49-23 |
-19.0
W
|
31/33 |
121/125 |
3.9/3.8 |
1/0 |
23/10 |
27/25 |
404/98 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
14.4/3.6 |
525/223 |
8.9/3.7 |
| 11/14/23 @ Bowling Green |
32-31 |
-10.0
L
|
23/30 |
167/112 |
7.3/3.7 |
0/1 |
20/26 |
30/46 |
251/281 |
1/0 |
3/5 |
7.6/5.5 |
418/393 |
7.5/4.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2023 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/23 @ Michigan St. |
7-31 |
+14.5
L
|
38/30 |
141/157 |
3.7/5.2 |
0/0 |
13/18 |
25/32 |
78/270 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
2.8/8.2 |
219/427 |
3.3/6.8 |
| 09/09/23 New Hampshire |
45-42 |
0.0
W
|
48/13 |
267/58 |
5.6/4.5 |
0/1 |
8/32 |
20/52 |
173/488 |
2/1 |
4/1 |
7.2/9.2 |
440/546 |
6.1/8.3 |
| 09/16/23 @ Notre Dame |
17-41 |
+34.5
W
|
32/36 |
153/238 |
4.8/6.6 |
0/0 |
10/17 |
20/28 |
117/342 |
0/0 |
2/0 |
5.3/12.2 |
270/580 |
5.0/9.1 |
| 09/23/23 @ South Alabama |
34-30 |
+16.5
W
|
36/31 |
136/166 |
3.8/5.4 |
0/0 |
20/17 |
31/27 |
219/235 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
6.6/8.1 |
355/401 |
5.1/6.7 |
| 09/30/23 Eastern Mich |
26-23 |
-9.5
L
|
26/35 |
201/171 |
7.7/4.9 |
0/0 |
19/20 |
26/26 |
210/169 |
1/0 |
1/3 |
7.8/5.8 |
411/340 |
7.8/5.3 |
| 10/07/23 @ Buffalo |
13-37 |
-3.0
L
|
24/33 |
81/126 |
3.4/3.8 |
1/0 |
27/20 |
49/32 |
256/229 |
3/0 |
1/2 |
5.1/6.7 |
337/355 |
4.6/5.3 |
| 10/14/23 Akron |
17-10 |
-11.0
L
|
47/17 |
135/89 |
2.9/5.2 |
0/0 |
17/16 |
32/33 |
176/106 |
2/2 |
2/2 |
5.2/3.0 |
311/195 |
3.8/3.8 |
| 10/21/23 @ Ball St. |
17-24 |
-5.5
L
|
33/43 |
111/247 |
3.4/5.7 |
0/0 |
19/13 |
31/16 |
149/98 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
4.5/5.4 |
260/345 |
3.9/5.7 |
| 10/31/23 Northern Ill |
37-31 |
+3.5
W
|
47/28 |
331/212 |
7.0/7.6 |
0/1 |
9/19 |
16/34 |
116/284 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
7.3/8.1 |
447/496 |
7.1/7.9 |
| 11/07/23 @ Western Mich |
28-38 |
+3.0
L
|
34/40 |
232/169 |
6.8/4.2 |
1/0 |
14/25 |
27/36 |
186/323 |
1/1 |
2/2 |
6.4/8.5 |
418/492 |
6.6/6.3 |
| 11/15/23 @ Ohio |
20-34 |
+11.0
L
|
30/36 |
177/183 |
5.9/5.1 |
1/0 |
10/16 |
21/24 |
142/218 |
1/0 |
3/2 |
5.9/8.4 |
319/401 |
5.9/6.5 |
Toledo
@ 
Central Mich