Game Analysis

Toledo (+4)  26   BYU  25

Toledo has been impressive so far in beating up on three weaker teams by an average margin of 43-10 and I may look back on this as a missed opportunity to play on the Rockets while there is still value. Quarterback Logan Woodside is not going to continue to average 18.4 yards per completion but he should still be very good going forward and I expect good numbers from the Rockets’ aerial attack in this game against a Cougars’ defense that has allowed 7.2 yards (although to quarterbacks that would average 7.1 yppp against an average defense). Toledo probably won’t be able to run the ball on a sturdy BYU defensive front but the Rockets are projected to average a decent 5.5 yards per play in this game despite not being able to run it.

BYU’s offense has averaged only 21 points per game thanks to a combination of averaging just 5.3 yards per play and throwing 7 interceptions. The Cougars have faced teams that would combine to allow only 5.3 yppl to an average offensive unit and Taysom Hill’s interception rate will come down, but BYU looks just mediocre offensively this season with a sub-par pass attack worse than expected rushing numbers (only 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average despite Hill running for 273 yards at 7.0 yprp).

Toledo has been better than average defensively, allowing just 13.5 points and 262 yards per game at 4.5 yppl against FBS opponents Arkansas State and Fresno, who would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense. BYU is projected to average only 5.4 yppl in this game and overall the math favors Toledo by ½ a point.