Game Analysis

ARKANSAS STATE (-4)  35   Toledo  31

Both of these teams are coming off successful 2015 campaigns, as Toledo was 10-2 while Arkansas State was 9-4. The Rockets more than got the best of the Red Wolves in last year’s matchup at the Glass Bowl, as Toledo won 37-7. The score is not indicative of the difference between these two teams and Arkansas State has had all off season to focus on this opening game with the memory of last year’s result spurring them on. Arkansas State is favored to get their revenge with former Pitt starter Chad Voytik leading the offense. Voytik was pretty good at Pitt and the pass attack should be much better than it was under dual threat quarterback Fredi Knighten, who completed only 54% of his passes last season. Voytik is not a great runner like Knighten was but he’s certainly capable of handing the ball off to running backs Wand and White, who combined for 1323 yards at 6.1 ypr last season and are capable of nearly filling the shoes of departed RB Michael Gordon (1062 yards at 6.4 ypr).

The Toledo defense is pretty stout up front but is susceptible to the pass and overall my ratings project 469 yards at 6.3 yards per play for the Red Wolves in this game. Toledo is projected at 460 yards at 6.3 yppl with Logan Woodside back in the saddle behind center after redshirting last season. Woodside was the starter for most of 2014 and put up solid numbers (7.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB). I expect similar, if not better, production from Woodside but the rushing attack is where Toledo’s bread is buttered. Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson combined for 1896 rushing yards at 5.9 ypr last season and that was with Hunt having his worst season by far. Hunt averaged just 5.5 ypr in 2015 but his career average is 6.7 ypr on 520 runs over 3 seasons. I expect Hunt to produce a higher yards per rush average this season and Toledo should be improved overall offensively this season.

Unfortunately, Toledo’s defense is likely to regress with just 3 starters returning from last year’s sturdy unit that allowed just 20.8 points per game. The Rockets should still have a pretty good defense by MAC standards but I rate them worse than average on a national scale and worse than the Arkansas State offense.

This should be a much more entertaining game than last year’s blowout but I see no value, as my ratings favor Arkansas State by 3 ½ points. I’ll pass.