Game Analysis

Texas (-4)  34   Washington  30

Star running back Jonathan Brooks was lost for the season in week 11 and the Longhorns have run it well in 3 games since (6.4 yprp). However, a 57-yard run by a rarely used back in garbage time against Oklahoma State contributed to that average and I don’t expect the active running backs, who combined for 5.3 ypr on 239 runs for the season, to match the production of Brooks – although I still rate the Longhorns’ ground attack at 0.7 yards per rushing play better than average. Brooks was also valuable in the passing game, as he caught 25 of 29 passes thrown to him for an average of 9.9 yards per target. The other backs combined for just 6.0 yards per target on 44 targets this season. Quinn Ewers was 2.0 yards per pass play better than average this season (8.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB) but I rate the Longhorns’ pass attack at +1.8 yppp without Brooks. I value Brooks at 1.8 points, but Texas is still a very good offense without him (+1.4 yppl).

Washington’s defense was 0.9 yppl better than average during the regular season and the Huskies are particularly good defending the pass (5.9 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.2 yppp against an average defense). They’ve been even better, relatively, against elite quarterbacks but Ewers has been relatively better throwing the ball against elite pass defenses. I project 448 yards at 6.2 yppl for Texas, which includes the benefit of playing in a dome.

Washington’s offense started the season on a record-breaking pace, averaging 9.3 yards per play with QB Michael Penix in the game (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average offense). Washington’s offense cooled down and ended the season at 2.0 yppl better than average (7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). Part of the reason for that slowdown was the absence of star WR Jalen McMillan, who was injured from week 4 through week 12 (0 catches in a few games he tried to play during that span). McMillan was still third on the team in receiving yards despite catching passes in only 5 games. He looked fully healthy in the Pac-12 Championship game, as he caught 9 passes for 131 yards on 13 targets against Oregon. With McMillan healthy, and dampening the affect of the early season positive outliers, I rate the Huskies’ offense at 1.9 yppl better than average.

The Texas defense is among the best in the nation defending the run (3.9 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yprp) and they’re 1.1 yards per pass play better than average. Washington’s offense is 60% pass plays during the regular season and they’re happy to throw the ball more rather than trying to run against the Longhorns, which makes the Texas defense not as effective. I project 409 yards at 6.7 yppl for Washington in this game.

Texas has elite special teams that are a couple of points better than Washington’s good special teams units (the FG kick is 1.0 points better) and overall the math favors Texas by 4.0 points with a total of 63.6 points. That’s right on market. Pass.