Texas vs


at San Antonio
Thu, Dec 29
6:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 257
Odds: Washington +3, Total: 67.5

Game Analysis

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Texas (-3)  35   Washington  32

Washington played just one bad game all season, a 38-45 loss at Arizona State. The Huskies’ other loss was by 8 points on the road against a very good UCLA team and the Huskies enter this game at 10-2 with a win at Oregon and versus top 15 team Oregon State.

Washington is led by Michael Penix Jr., who had one of the best seasons of any quarterback in the nation. Penix Jr. led the nation in pass yards and averaged 8.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback) while throwing just 7 interceptions on 500 pass attempts. The Huskies are mediocre running the ball, but they’ve been 1.2 yards per play better than average overall offensively and will likely rely more than usual on the aerial attack given how good the Longhorns are at defending the run (1.4 yards per rushing play better than average). The Texas dfesne was 1.2 yppl better than average overall this season, which is the same as the Washington offensive rating, but the absence of NFL-bound LB DeMarvion Overshown is worth about 0.2 yppl and 1.5 points, which is a lot for a defensive player. Overshown was second on the team in tackles, second on the team in total tackles for loss and sacks and third on team in passes defended, which is impressive for a linebacker. I project 492 yards at 6.3 yppl for Washington in this game, which is enhanced by playing in a dome.

The Texas offense was 1.1 yppl better than average for the season but quarterback Quinn Ewers was worse than backup Hudson Card and both star running backs, Bijan Robinson and Roschan Johnson, have opted out of this game. Those two combined for 2134 rushing yards at 6.1 ypr and while there is still talent at the position it is unlikely that the remaining backs will match the lofty average yards per run of the departed stars (I project 0.6 ypr worse).

Washington’s defense is just 0.4 yppl better than average and I project 432 yards at 6.4 yppl for Texas even without their two NFL-caliber backs. The advantage for Texas in this game is special teams but overall the math only favors the Longhorns by 1.5 points and 66.5 total points. Washington applies to a negative 25-68 ATS bowl situation and I must have a clear advantage to play a Pac-12 team, as that conference is 9-29 ATS in all bowl games the last 7 seasons. I’ll pass.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texas
  • Washington


  • Run Plays 34.9 34.1
  • Run Yards 207.8 138.2
  • YPRP 5.9 4.1


  • Pass Comp 18.1 23.8
  • Pass Att 29.8 37.3
  • Comp % 60.6% 63.8%
  • Pass Yards 234.0 238.3
  • Sacks 1.5 2.3
  • Sack Yards 11.4 14.9
  • Sack % 4.8% 5.9%
  • Pass Plays 31.3 39.6
  • Net Pass Yards 222.6 223.3
  • YPPP 7.1 5.6


  • Total Plays 66.3 73.7
  • Total Yards 430.3 361.5
  • YPPL 6.5 4.9


  • Int 0.6 0.8
  • Int % 1.9% 2.0%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.3
  • Turnovers 1.0 1.1
  • Points 35.7 21.2
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