Game Analysis

Lean – Mississippi (-3.5)  42   Texas Tech  34

Lean – Over (70)

This is a rare case of a bowl game between two power-5 conference teams with no significant players opting out or transferring – only a defensive back on each side as of Sunday. That probably would have been different had Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin bolted for another job and it speaks to the belief that Texas Tech players have for their first-year head coach.

Texas Tech managed to win and cover the spread in each of their final 3 games with Tyler Shough back at quarterback despite being outplayed by 9 points or more from the line of scrimmage in all 3 of those games. The Red Raiders 3 game win streak was accomplished despite being outgained 459 yards at 5.9 yards per play to 551 yards at 7.2 yppl and those 3 undeserved wins have served to give us some line value on a Mississippi team on a 3-game losing streak in which the Rebels outgained Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi State by a combined 484 yards at 5.9 yppl to 395 yards at 5.8 yppl.

Not only was Ole Miss the better team over the course of the season but they’ve been better down the stretch despite the recent straight up results. Teams that covered the spread in their previous 3 or more games are just 104-149-3 ATS in their bowl game (if facing a team not off 3 spread wins too) and teams on a straight up losing streak of 3 games or more are 30-22 ATS in their bowl games (not against another such team). So, the recent results of these teams are not only misleading given how each team has performed but I think there is line value because of the recent results.

I do believe Texas Tech is considerably better with Shough back at quarterback. He was really good in his one season at Oregon, and he was on track to have a great season at Texas Tech in 2021 before getting injured in week 4. Shough was the opening day starter this season but was injured in that game. I’ll excuse his -18 yards on 5 pass plays off the bench in his return to action against Baylor in week 9 and from week 10 on he was 0.4 yards per pass play better than average, which is 0.8 yppp better than the team’s rating for the season, which equates to a bit more than 4 points per game. Mississippi’s defense has been 0.5 yards per play better than average this season (a bit worse without CB Battle in this game) and I project 524 yards on 89 plays (5.9 yppl) for Texas Tech in this game.

Mississippi is also expected to run a lot of plays and gain a lot of yards, as the Rebels have averaged 494 yards at 6.5 yppl this season against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack. Texas Tech has been solid defensively over the course of the season, rating at 0.4 yppl better than average after adjusting for the 368 rushing yards at 11.2 yards per rushing play they gave up to Kansas State (mostly on quarterback runs), which I considered an outlier. The Red Raiders’ run defense has been 0.3 yprp better than average defending the run for the season even if I include that game and I rate them at 0.6 yprp better than average. Texas Tech should be able to slow down the Mississippi’s elite rush attack a bit (I project 252 rush yards at 5.5 yprp) but Rebels’ quarterback Jaxson Dart has averaged 7.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback, which is 0.5 yppp better than Texas Tech’s pass defense without free safety Reggie Pearson. I project Dart to average 8.5 yppp in this game and for the Rebels to gain 549 yards on 81 plays (6.8 yppl).

The offensive numbers for each team are enhanced by the perfect scoring conditions. With wind and rain expected in Houston Wednesday night the roof will almost certainly be closed, which adds 4.0 points to this game that features two teams that run their offense at a fast pace. My math favors Mississippi by 4.7 points even with the huge upgrade I gave Texas Tech for having Shough at quarterback and the Rebels apply to a 69-28-2 ATS bowl situation in addition to the negative trend against teams that have covered 3 or more straight games. I’ll lean with Mississippi at -4 or less and Over 71 points or less.