Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Texas Tech (-7)  32   KANSAS STATE  19

This would have been a 2-Star Best Bet if not for a 118-42 ATS home underdog momentum situation that applies to Kansas State.

Kansas State is a pretty good team but they don’t have voodoo magic over every team like they apparently do against rival Kansas, who they beat for a 17th consecutive time last week. Even with that dominating performance the Wildcats grade out at just 5.9 points per game better than average from the line of scrimmage without big-play running back Dylan Edwards, who has already been ruled out for this game.

The Kansas State offense is just 0.3 yards per play better than average without Edwards and the Wildcats’ defense has been 0.6 yppl better than average. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has been an incredible 1.9 yppl better than average defensively while holding every opponent under 5.0 yppl and the Red Raiders have been 0.8 yppl better than average offensively. I rate the Tech offense at 1.1 yppl better than average with quarterback Behren Morton returning this week even after throwing out his performances against Kent State and Oregon State (11.2 yards per pass play in those game). I felt that Morton’s metrics against good defensive teams Utah, Houston and Kansas would be more applicable to this game against a good Kansas State defense. Morton averaged 7.4 yards per pass play in those 3 games, which is 1.7 yppp better than average QB would average against those 3 teams (weighted, of course, by how many pass plays he had against each team).

So, even using the more conservative route when grading Morton I still get Texas Tech gaining 440 yards at 5.9 yppl to Kansas State’s 276 yards at 4.4 yppl. The Red Raiders are also much better in special teams, which more than offsets the Wildcats’ 1.7 points edge in projected turnovers.

This game easily applies as a math model play and the math model plays I’ve been passing because of a strong situation favoring the other side keep winning. I’ve been passing those, unfortunately, but this time I’m going to play the math. Texas Tech is a Strong Opinion at -7 -115 odds or better.