Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved below the Strong Opinion constraint of +5 or more. Texas State would be a Lean at +4.5 to +3.5.

Strong Opinion – Texas State (+5.5)  33   SOUTHERN MISS  33

I bet on Southern Miss over 5.5 wins before the season started so I’m not surprised that the Eagles have been good this season (now 7-2). However, they’re not as good as they appear to be, as outscoring their opponents by 8.1 points per game on a +22 net total yards average (projects to about a +2 margin) has a lot do to with being +16 in turnover margin. Quarterback Braylon Braxton’s low interception percentage (1.9%) is maintainable given his history of low interceptions but fumbling the ball away just 3 times all season is a bit lucky. The defense averaging 2.8 takeaways per game is not likely to continue, although I do expect about 2.0 turnovers per game going forward based on the 7.0 passes defended per game. My math model projects a 0.8 turnover advantage for Southern Miss in this game, but that’s still much lower than the +1.8 per game they’ve benefited from so far this season and Texas State should make this a close game even with a -1 in turnovers.

The Bobcats have a very good offense that’s been 0.6 yards per play better than average (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) and that unit has an advantage over a solid Southern Miss defense that’s been 0.1 yppl better than average.

The advantage is similar for a Southern Miss offense that’s 0.4 yppl worse than average and going up against a Texas State defense that’s been 0.8 yppl worse than average. With Southern Miss at home the math projects 6.3 yppl for the Eagles and 6.1 yppl for the Bobcats. However, Texas State is projected to run significantly more plays, as Southern Miss’ bend-but-don’t-break defense tends to give up long drives by limiting big plays and hoping for an offensive mistake (which has happened a lot for them with all those turnovers). That has led to a -6.1 play differential per game and Texas State has no issue with long scoring drives (71 plays per game) and has a quarterback that has limited mistakes (just 6 interceptions on 253 pass attempts). I project Texas State to have an advantage in total yards in this game.

Southern Miss has been as good as I expected they’d be, but they’ve also been lucky and are now overrated. Texas State is a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more.