Game Analysis

Lean – Over (59.5) – Texas State (-3.5)  35   Rice  29

Both teams should be excited to be playing in a bowl game, as this is Texas State’s first bowl game ever and Rice needed to win their final two games to earn an additional game.

Texas State’s turnaround in coach CJ Kinne’s first season was due to a significant overhaul in personnel, as Kinne used the transfer portal more than any coach in the nation aside from Deion Sanders at Colorado. Kinne’s brand of offense, which lead FCS team Incarnate Word to a 12-2 season in 2022, worked well for the Bobcats, who averaged 36 points and 6.3 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team). Rice is 0.6 yppl worse than average, which is a bit worse than what Texas State faced on average this season, but the slow pace of the Owls’ offense should result in a few less plays than normal for the Bobcats, who I project at 459 yards at 6.5 yppl in this game.

Well-traveled former top recruit QB JT Daniels (starter at USC and Georgia) was having a solid season for Rice before retiring due to concussions and backup AJ Padgett, who started the final 3 games, is a significant downgrade, as he was 1.2 yards per pass play worse than average (Daniels was average in compensated yppp, which is good for a Rice QB). The Owls’ rush attack picked up as the season progressed, as they managed just 51 ground yards at 2.4 yards per rushing play in their first 4 games against FBS opponents (that would allow 4.6 yprp to an average team) and averaged 161 yards at 6.1 yprp (vs teams that allow 5.1 yprp) in their final 7 games. I rate the Rice attack at 0.4 yppl worse than average heading into this game (-0.1 yppl for the season).

Texas State’s defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average team, so the Owls should be able to move the ball at a decent clip. I project 393 yards at 6.1 yppl for Rice in this game.

The math favors Texas State by 7.0 points with 64.2 total points. The situation favors Rice a bit, but I would lean with Texas State if the line gets to -3 or less, but I do Lean Over 60 points or less.