Game Analysis

OKLAHOMA (-8)  45   Texas   33

Texas won the earlier meeting with Oklahoma 48-45 on a neutral field in Dallas but the Longhorns were outplayed 6.7 yards per play to 9.5 yppl by the Sooners in that game and only won because they were fortunate to be +3 in turnovers. Oklahoma only committed 9 total turnovers in their 11 other games and the Texas defense is worse than average in turnovers (just 1.4 per game) so it’s unlikely that the Sooners will gift wrap this game like they did the first meeting.

My math model projects 8.6 yards per play for Oklahoma in this rematch, a bit less than their record-setting 9.2 yards per play for the season (and 9.5 yppl in the first meeting), and a Texas offense that only averages 5.6 yards per play for the season isn’t likely to match the 6.7 yppl that they had in that first meeting. Oklahoma’s defense is getting a lot of criticism but the 32.8 points per game the Sooners have allowed isn’t actually that bad considering that their opponents would combine to average 31.5 points against an average opponent and they’re really only worse than average in compensated points allowed because their offense scores so quickly that their defense faced more than an average number of possessions in a game.

I like Oklahoma here and would really get interested if this line drops down to -7 points.