Game Analysis

Texas (-7)  41   CALIFORNIA  34

My ratings favor Texas by 11 points but Cal applies to a 141-48-2 ATS that I’d prefer not to go against. While I have no opinion on the side but ratings do suggest that the total has gotten out of hand. The total on this game opened at 76 ½ points and has gone up to 81 points. My ratings project 75 points so I think the opening line was pretty accurate. I can understand why people see this as a very high scoring game given Cal’s average score of 45.5 points on offense and 38.0 points allowed through two games. However, I think an excellent Texas pass defense can slow down Cal’s attack and a Longhorns’ offense that runs the ball 63.5% of the time will eat up a lot of the clock. I’m not suggesting that the game won’t be high scoring. It very likely will. However, the sentiment towards the over is too strong, which usually portends an under.