Game Analysis

Note: I released this game when ASU was a 14 point underdog. The Sun Devils are just a Lean at lean than +14.

Strong Opinion – Arizona State (+14)  20   Texas  28

Arizona State is 11-2 ATS this season, including 6 straight spread wins entering this game, and the Sun Devils are still underrated. Everyone knows about dual threat running back Cam Skattebo but it’s the ASU defense that continues to be underrated.

Arizona State has yielded just 20.8 points per game and only 5.3 yppl to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Texas scored a lot of points early in the season against worse than average defensive teams (48.5 ppg against CSU, UTSA, ULM, and Miss State) but the Longhorns have averaged just 28.1 points and a modest 5.8 yppl in their other 10 games against average or better defensive teams. Those opponents would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average offense and the Arizona State defense rates at 0.2 yppl better than that. I still included those early season games for Texas in my model, and I project 28 points on 396 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Longhorns while taking into account the perfect dome conditions (assuming WR Isaiah Bond will play, although he may not).

The strength of the Longhorns is obviously their defense, which has yielded just 13.3 points and 4.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team. That defense showed some chinks in the armor last week against Clemson (417 yards at 6.2 yppl), but I expect that unit to play at their normal strong level. Arizona State has a unique offense and a unique player in Skattebo, who not only ran for 1568 yards at 6.0 ypr with 19 touchdowns but also had 506 yard receiving at 11.8 yards per target. Skattebo missed one game, and QB Leavitt missed the Cincy loss, but the Sun Devils averaged 6.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) in the 11 games in which Leavitt and Skattebo both played while scoring 22 points or more in all of them. ASU didn’t face a defense as good as the one they’ll face in this game (as there are only a couple in the nation as good as Texas) but are playing their best brand of offense recently and just raced up 45 points and 8.7 yppl against a good Iowa State defense in the Big 12 Championship game. Top WR Jordyn Tyson is out with injury but his 9.7 yards per target isn’t that much higher than the 8.9 YPT of the next 3 wide receivers and the Sun Devils just played at an elite level offensively against Iowa State without Tyson. I still docked the offense 0.3 yards per pass play, which equates to 0.6 points. My model projects 324 yards at 5.0 yppl, which should be enough to stay within a couple of touchdowns of a Texas offense that is unlikely to put up a large number of points against a good ASU defense.

Arizona State is a Strong Opinion at +14 -115 odds or better. Lean on ASU at +12 or more.