Game Analysis

Lean – Over (54) – Oklahoma State (-3)  33   Texas A&M  27

With Connor Weigman out with injury and Max Johnson in the transfer portal it will be Jaylen Henderson at quarterback. Henderson was the quarterback for the Aggies in their final 3 games and averaged 7.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average quarterback. That’s only 0.4 yppp worse than the team average but Henderson will be without the team’s top receiver Ainias Smith, who caught passes for 795 yards at 9.9 yards per target. The #2 receiver Evan Stewart will also be out due to transfer, but he didn’t play much with Henderson, as he missed 3 of the final 4 games and got just 1 target in the game he tried to play. WR Noah Thomas (29 catches for 359 yards at 9.0 YPT) will reportedly also not be playing in this game, which leaves two receivers that were in the regular rotation – Jahdae Walker and Moose Muhammed. Those two did combine to average 9.5 yards on their 77 targets. The problem is lack of experience beyond those two, however, TE Jake Johnson transferring (6.7 YPT on 35 targets) will give more targets to TE Max Wright, who averaged 8.4 yards on his 22 targets with a significantly better success rate (52% to 41%). The A&M rush attack is 0.2 yprp worse than average and I rate the Aggies’ attack at 0.4 yppl worse than average heading into this game.

A&M should still move the ball at a decent rate in a domed stadium against an Oklahoma State defense that was 0.3 yppl worse than average this season (6.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defense). I project 396 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Aggies.

The Oklahoma State was in the experimental stage the first few weeks of the season with 3 different quarterbacks vying for the full-time job. Alan Bowman won that battle, as Rangel and Gundy combined for a horrible 4.8 yards per pass play on 69 pass plays. From week 4 on with Bowman entrenched at the position the Cowboys averaged 32.2 points and 458 yards per game at 6.4 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). Oklahoma State has a pass heavy attack but RB Ollie Gordon II ran for 1614 yards at 6.3 ypr.

The Texas A&M defense allowed just 21.3 points and 5.1 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defense. However, the Aggies are shorthanded on that side of the ball for this game. The Aggies has had nearly half of their key defensive players opt out or transfer. There is still talent on the roster but the unit that will be out there for this game hasn’t played together in a game and my algorithm projects that they’ll be about 6 points worse than the defense they fielded during the regular season. I project 450 yards at 6.7 yppl for Oklahoma State in this game (adjusted for playing in a dome).

The math favors Oklahoma State by 6.5 points and 60.4 total points. I’ll lean Over 55 points or less.