Texas A&M @

Mississippi St.

Sat, Oct 1
SEC Network
1:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 181
Odds: Mississippi St. -3, Total: 45

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

1-Star Best Bet – *MISSISSIPPI STATE (-3)  26   Texas A&M  14

Texas A&M’s offense has scored just 14 points, 14 points, and 17 points in 3 games against FBS opponents (and 31 points against a bad Sam Houston State defense isn’t good either) and now the Aggies are without their best offensive player, Ainias Smith. Smith has more than double the receiving yards of any of his teammates and his 12.1 yards per target and 57% success rate are significantly better than the 6.4 yards per target and 32% success rate of the rest of the wide receivers.

Max Johnson has been a bit worse in his two starts and King was (even after compensating for opposing defenses faced) and he’ll have no luck throwing against an elite Miss State pass defense that’s yielded just 4.9 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.0 yppp against an average defensive team. That included limiting good passing teams Memphis, Arizona, and LSU to just 4.9 yppp. Texas A&M will have to rely on a good rushing attack (0.8 yprp better than average) to move the ball against a mediocre Bulldogs’ run defense, but A&M scored just 14 and 17 points against teams with a worse than average run defense (App State and Arkansas) and the Bulldogs will be able to put an extra man close to the line of scrimmage now that they don’t have to worry about double-teaming Smith. A&M has averaged only 15 offensive points against FBS teams and it’s unlikely that the Aggies will surpass that number in this game.

Mississippi State’s ball-control aerial attack will be slowed by a very good A&M defense that’s held 3 good offensive teams to just 19 points per game, but the Bulldogs should enjoy good field position for most of the game, which will help them score more points than their projected yardage (387 yards at 5.4 yppl) would normally project.

A&M’s strength is their defense, but Mississippi State’s defense has been better so far this season and the Bulldogs certainly have a better offense (and special teams).

Mississippi State is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texas A&M
  • Mississippi St.
A&M
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 26.3 39.5
  • Run Yards 140.5 182.3
  • YPRP 5.4 4.6




Pass





  • Pass Comp 14.3 15.5
  • Pass Att 24.0 29.5
  • Comp % 59.4% 52.5%
  • Pass Yards 193.0 153.3
  • Sacks 2.0 1.3
  • Sack Yards 9.0 7.3
  • Sack % 7.7% 4.1%
  • Pass Plays 26.0 30.8
  • Net Pass Yards 184.0 146.0
  • YPPP 7.1 4.7

Total

  • Total Plays 52.3 70.3
  • Total Yards 324.5 328.3
  • YPPL 6.2 4.7

TO


  • Int 0.5 0.3
  • Int % 2.1% 0.8%
  • Fumbles 0.5 0.8
  • Turnovers 1.0 1.0
 
  • Points 21.3 11.8
Share This