Game Analysis

Lean – Under (49.5) – Texas A&M (-2.5)  24   LSU  19

LSU has gone under the total of 5 of their 6 games against FBS opponents, as the Tigers’ offense is not nearly as good as it was expected to be while their defense is playing at an elite level.

LSU has averaged only 20.5 points in 6 games against FBS opponents, although the Tigers have been 0.5 yards per play better than average with their modest 5.8 yards per play coming against teams that would allow just 5.3 yppl to an average team. Texas A&M is by far the toughest defense that the Tigers have faced, as the Aggies have yielded just 5.1 yppl despite facing teams that would combine to average 6.5 yppl against an average team. Only elite offensive teams Notre Dame (#3 in compensated yards per play) and Arkansas (#1) have scored more than 17 points against A&M’s starters (UTSA and Utah State both got garbage time points to get above 17). LSU ranks #39 in compensated offensive yards per play and they’re more likely than not to be held to 20 points or fewer.

LSU’s defense is just as good as the A&M stop unit, as the Tigers have yielded just 5.0 yppl and 15.3 points per game to FBS opponents that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defense. Texas A&M’s offense has been 1.3 yppl better than average so far this season, which is a bit worse than the LSU defense.

The defensive units have the advantage in this game and both teams run their offense at a slower than average pace and will be playing adverse scoring conditions (higher than average winds with some rain expected).

The Under is a Lean at 49 points or higher.