Game Analysis

OHIO STATE (-7)  28   Tennessee  19

Ohio State is coming off an inexcusable loss to Michigan in which they appeared to be playing not to lose than playing to win. I expect the Buckeyes to perform better in this game but Tennessee is capable of an upset.

The Volunteers have an elite defense that rates at 1.4 yards per play better than average, which is the same rating as the Ohio State offense. The Buckeyes struggled offensively against Michigan (4.3 yppl) but in 4 games against elite defensive teams (Oregon, Penn St, Indiana and Michigan) they were 1.3 yppl better than average so I don’t see a pattern of Ohio State’s offense playing worse against good defensive teams. I project 5.8 yppl for the Buckeyes in this game.

Ohio State’s defense is a bit better than the Vols’ defense, rating at 1.6 yppl better than average and they have a significant advantage over a Tennessee attack that I rate at just 0.4 yppl better than average (I excluded their game against FCS team Chattanooga and their game against Kent State, which was the worst FBS team this season). Tennessee is capable of playing well against a good defense, as evidenced by their 6.1 yppl against Alabama, but the Vols struggled in their other two games against very good defensive teams with just 4.8 yppl against Oklahoma and Georgia. I project just 4.5 yppl for the Volunteers against the best defense they’ve faced this season.

Overall, the math favors Ohio State by 8.2 with a total of 47 points and I bumped that up to Buckeyes by 9 points given Tennessee’s inexperience playing in cold temperatures (expected to be in the 20s throughout this night game).