Game Analysis

Tennessee (-8.5)  34   KENTUCKY  24

Kentucky took Texas to overtime last week but the Wildcats aren’t a good team, as they rate at 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively with Cutter Boley at quarterback (who was an upgrade over Zach Calzada) and are just 0.6 yppl better than average on defense.

Tennessee’s defense has been better despite the 32.7 points per game they’ve given up, as the Volunteers have yielded just 5.3 yppl to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.5 yppl against an average defensive team (adjusted for facing Syracuse before QB Angeli got injured). Their fast paced offense also leads to a couple extra possessions per game for their opponents. Tennessee has faced mostly good offensive teams but the two mediocre attacks that they’ve faced (Syracuse and UAB) were limited to 4.4 yppl and 25 points per game. Both of those offenses are better than Kentucky, who my model projects to score 24 points in this game.

While the Kentucky defense is good (0.6 yppl better than average), they don’t stack up to a Tennessee attack that’s averaged over 500 yards per game at 7.1 yppl (against FBS teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). The Vols have scored 34 points or more in all but one game this season (Alabama) and should score around that number in this game.