Game Analysis

Georgia Tech (+3)  30   Tennessee  28

Georgia Tech went back to being Georgia Tech last season after a rare losing season in 2015 (3-9) and I expect more of the same this year. What Georgia Tech is is an option offense that’s very difficult for even top defensive teams to stop and a mediocre defense that plays well enough for the Yellow Jackets to win most of their games. This season, Georgia Tech is replacing their top two running backs and quarterback Justin Thomas, who posted really good passing numbers last season. The offense might be down a notch but will still be your typical Georgia Tech attack that is hard to stop. The improvement will come from a defense that returns 8 starters. Last year’s Georgia Tech defense was slightly worse than average on a national scale and that unit should be a bit better than average this season. Overall the Yellow Jackets should be about the same last season and most seasons, which is about 10 points better than an average FBS team.

Tennessee was really good offensively at the end of last season after vastly overrated running back Jalen Hurd left the team after the 9^th week of the season. Hurd had averaged just 4.5 ypr in his career and 3.7 ypr last season (5.1 ypr is average) and the rushing attack was really good when more explosive backs Alvin Kamara and John Kelly starting getting the ball. Those two combined for 1226 yards at 6.1 ypr and combined with quarterback Joshua Dobbs (1066 running yards at 8.6 yards per run in 12 games against FBS competition) to give the Volunteers a potent ground game to go along with a good aerial attack. Tennessee averaged 582 yards at an incredible 8.0 yards per play in the 5 games against FBS opponents that Hurd did not play in (that includes week 6 against A&M when Hurd was out due to injury). However, I do not expect that sort of offense this season with Dobbs gone. Dobbs averaged 129 rushing yards at 11.7 yards per run in those 5 games and Kamara is also gone. John Kelly returns but he’s averaged a modest 5.3 ypr on 131 carries against FBS opponents in his first two seasons and I don’t expect new quarterback Quinton Dormady to put up passing numbers as good as Dobbs had last year. That’s not to say that Dormady isn’t as good as Dobbs, because he very well may be, but I would have expected a significant drop in the passing numbers even if Dobbs were back this season due to the absence of big play WR Josh Malone, who averaged a ridiculous 13.0 yards per target last season. Not yards per catch. Yards per target!

The Tennessee offense just isn’t likely to be as good as it was last season but the defensive numbers should be better this season even without 1^st Team All-American DE Derek Barnett. However, last season’s defense was worse than average on a national scale and the run defense was particularly bad (253 yards at 6.1 yards per rushing play allowed) so even an improved defense is likely to be in trouble against a George Tech team that runs the ball 80% of the time. The Vols should have a good secondary but that strength is minimized in this matchup and my ratings, which take matchups into account, favor Georgia Tech by 2 points.