Game Analysis

Tennessee (-4)  26   GEORGIA  22

Both of these teams have been disappointing so far this season but last week Tennessee has their best half of the season, by far, in their come from behind win over Florida while Georgia was beaten down 14-45 by Ole’ Miss. Prior to their good second half last week the Vols had been struggling offensively (5.2 yards per play in their first 3 games) but the 403 yards at 6.4 yppl last week against Florida’s strong defense may be an indication that Tennessee is ready to surge towards the level expected of them before the season started.

Georgia, meanwhile, started the season with a 33-24 win over North Carolina but the Bulldogs followed that promising win with a 2 point win over FCS team Nicholls State (favored by 53 points) and a 1 point win over Missouri in which they were significantly outplayed (a +4 in turnovers is why the barely won). Then came last week’s demolition in Oxford by the Rebels.

Georgia freshman quarterback Jacob Eason has only completed 52% of his passes so far and the Bulldogs rank as just average on both sides of the ball through 4 games when adjusting for their schedule. Georgia will be without star RB Nick Chubb, but his 5.1 ypr so far this season won’t likely be missed with backups Brian Herrien and Sony Michel combining to average 5.9 ypr.

My math model favors Tennessee by 6 points but Georgia applies to a 61-16-2 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs of more than 3 points that were just beaten by 28 points or more (there are a few other parameters to that angle). So, the Bulldogs are due for a bounce-back game. With the line value favoring one side and the situation favoring the other, I’ll choose to pass on this game.