Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Temple (+17)  23   UTSA  34

UTSA is not good enough to be a 17 point favorite in this game. The Roadrunners have been 0.5 yards per play worse than average on offense and Temple’s defense has been just 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively and they’d be even better if you took out their two games against option teams Army and Navy (7.4 yppl allowed), as apparently the Owls’ coaching staff does not know how to defend that type of offense. I project UTSA at only 6.0 yppl in this game, although I do expect their ball-control offense to run 78 plays from scrimmage.

UTSA’s defense is 0.9 yppl worse than average (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense) and Temple’s offense is better than their -1.4 yppl rating, as Evan Simon is a better quarterback than Forrest Brock, who was terrible in 3 starts, and the Owls’ offense was also hurt by being without their best player, WR Dante Wright for 3 games. Wright averages 8.6 yards per target on an average of 11 targets per game and the rest of the wide receivers combine to average just 5.8 YPT, so having Wright back makes a significant difference – especially with Simon at quarterback (Wright has averaged 10.2 YPT on 45 targets from Simon). Wright caught 14 passes in his first game back last week and Temple’s pass attack is 0.5 yards per pass play better with Simon and Wright than it is overall for the season, which is worth 2 points. The Owls still rate at 1.2 yppl worse than average offensively but that’s not that much worse than the UTSA defense and Temple’s pass-heavy attack matches up well against a UTSA defense that is very good defending the run (wasted on an Temple team that can’t run anyway) while being 1.9 yppp worse than average against the pass (7.6 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average defense).

I project Temple to average a decent 5.3 yppl in this game (adjusted for dome conditions), which should be enough to stay within a couple of touchdowns of the overrated Roadrunners, who are just 3-7 ATS against FBS opponents, including 0-4 ATS favored by 5 points or more. Temple is a 1-Star Best Bet at +17 -115 odds or better (Strong Opinion to +16).