Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *UAB (-7)  42   Temple  27

Temple has the 7th worst defense in the nation, rating at 1.3 yards per play worse than average, and UAB should take full advantage with Jacob Zeno at quarterback against an Owls’ defense that rates at 2nd worst in the nation defending the pass. Zeno has completed 75% of his passes this season and rated 0.3 yards per pass play better than average (7.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback). The Blazers also have a decent ground attack and rate at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively with Zeno behind center (he missed the Memphis game). The Blazers have shown that they can take advantage of a horrible defensive team, as they scored 56 points on 646 yards at 8.4 yppl against South Florida – the only other bottom 10 defense they’ve faced with Zeno at QB. Temple has given up an average of 37.8 points per game to teams that rate at 0.5 yppl worse collectively than UAB’s offense and my math model projects the Blazers to gain 570 yards at 7.7 yppl in this game.

Temple’s offense was dreadful in the two games that quarterback EJ Warner missed but the Owls are 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively with Warner on the field, which is the same rating at UAB’s defense. The math projects a modest 394 yards at 5.2 yppl for Temple in this game and only 23 points. However, UAB’s defense has been remarkably bad on 3rd downs, allowing FBS teams to convert to a 1st-down 53.4% of the time. That’s significantly higher than expected based on their overall defensive statistics but they haven’t been regressing towards their expectation in that metric as would be expected, which is the only reason that this play is a 1-Star Best Bet instead of a 2-Star Best Bet.

If UAB’s 3rd-down defense was as projected then I’d project them to win this game by 18 points. However, if they continue to be as bad as they’ve been defensively on 3rd-downs then they’d be projected to win by 10 points. That’s still enough to cover the number and it’s still more likely that the Blazers’ 3rd-down defense regresses towards expectations.

UAB is a 1-Star Best Bet at -8 or less.