Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **NORTH TEXAS (-5)  44   Temple  30

North Texas was favored by 8 points on Monday morning and this line came crashing down. I thought that the Mean Green were the right side at -8 and I certainly like them now after a 4-point line move.

Both of these teams are among the worst in the nation defensively, with North Texas rating at 1.4 yards per play worse than average (6.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense) while Temple has been even worse 1.6 yppl worse than average (7.0 yppl allowed in 5 games against FBS teams that would average only 5.4 yppl against an average defense).

North Texas has an even bigger advantage offensively, as the Mean Green rate at 0.3 yppl better than average offensively with Chandler Rogers at quarterback while Temple’s offense has been 1.0 yppl worse than average, managing just 4.8 yppl (excluding garbage time) against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. The Owls have averaged just 19.6 points in 5 games against FBS teams while North Texas has averaged 31.0 points in their games against FBS teams that are just 0.2 yppl worse collectively than the defenses that Temple has faced.

North Texas hasn’t faced a defense quite as bad as Temple’s defense, but the Eagles averaged 7.0 yppl and scored 45 points against Abilene Christian, who is 0.5 yppl better defensively than the Owls. The worst defensive team that Temple faced is Norfolk State, whose defense is a full 1.0 yppl worse than the North Texas defense. The Owls scored 41 points in that game, which would be about 33 points against a team with North Texas’ defensive rating. The worse FBS defense that the Owls have faced is that of Akron, whose defense is 0.2 yppl worse than the North Texas defense. Temple managed just 4.9 yppl and 24 points in that game.

North Texas is clearly more capable of taking advantage of a bad defensive team and they’ll have success running and throwing the ball. Being able to run is important in the 15 mph winds that are projected in Denton on Saturday during the game (with gusts into the mid-20s). Temple throws the ball about 70% of the time and windy conditions are certainly more likely to affect their offense given that the Owls can’t run the ball (61.2 rush yards per game at 2.8 yprp against FBS opponents). I do project 7.0 yards per pass play for EJ Warner in this game after adjusting for the wind, and the math projects 499 yards at 6.1 yppl. However, North Texas is projected to average 6.3 yprp, 9.7 yppp and to total 562 yards at 8.0 yppl. If 9.7 yppp sounds like a lot you should consider that Temple has faced below average to good passing teams this season (Rutgers, Tulsa, Miami-Florida and UTSA) and the Owls gave up an average of 9.6 yppp in those games. Those teams, collectively, rate at 0.3 yppp worse than North Texas quarterback Rogers does (adjusted for playing this game at home).

In addition to the line value, Temple applies to a very negative 72-166-6 ATS situation that plays against bad teams with bad defenses on the road. Temple lost by 29 points at Rutgers (as an 8.5-point dog) and by 22 points at Tulsa (+3.5) in their only two previous road games this season and I think they’ll lose by double-digits in this game.

North Texas is a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less and 1-Star up to -7.