Temple @


Thu, Oct 6
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 305
Odds: Memphis -10, Total: 57.5

Game Analysis

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MEMPHIS (-10)  33   Temple  24

Temple’s three wins have come against really bad teams Stony Brook, Charlotte, and SMU while their two losses have been to mediocre teams Army and Penn State. Memphis falls into that mediocre category, as the Tigers are about 4 points better than an average FBS team and also can attribute all of their victories to facing bad teams. Memphis has looked better against their bad opponents than Temple has, and losing by 20 points on the road to a vengeful Ole’ Miss team can be excused (the margin was also influenced by a -3 in turnovers).

Memphis did average 6.3 yards per play against a good Rebels’ defense and the Tigers have been 0.5 yppl better than average offensively so far this season, averaging 6.7 yppl with starting quarterback Riley Ferguson in the game against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average offense. Temple’s defense is not as strong this season without their All-American tackling machine Tyler Matakevich, who won the Nagurski and Bednarik awards last season. Temple’s 20.4 points per game and 4.8 yppl allowed look good on the surface but the Owls have faced teams that would combine to average only 21 points and 4.8 yppl against an average FBS defense. Temple is really just average defensively and tonight the Owls are expected to be without leading tackler Stephaun Marshall and fellow defensive back Sean Chandler. My math model projects 432 yards at 6.3 yppl for Memphis in this game after adjusting a bit for Marshall and Chandler being out.

Temple’s offense has averaged 34.2 points and 5.8 yards per play this season (with QB Walker on the field) but they’ve done so against a schedule of bad defensive teams (aside from Penn State, who is mediocre defensively) that would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average attack. Memphis is a bit better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team) and the math projects 356 yards at modest 5.2 yppl for Temple in this game.

Overall the math model favors Memphis by 9 points with a total of 56 ½ points, which is not enough of an edge to recommend a play in this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Temple
  • Memphis


  • Run Plays 32.0 39.4
  • Run Yards 150.6 171.6
  • YPRP 5.2 4.7


  • Pass Comp 14.4 13.4
  • Pass Att 27.0 27.0
  • Comp % 53.3% 49.6%
  • Pass Yards 199.8 156.6
  • Sacks 2.2 1.8
  • Sack Yards 17.0 15.0
  • Sack % 7.5% 6.3%
  • Pass Plays 29.2 28.8
  • Net Pass Yards 182.8 141.6
  • YPPP 6.3 4.9


  • Total Plays 61.2 68.2
  • Total Yards 350.4 328.2
  • YPPL 5.7 4.8


  • Int 1.4 1.2
  • Int % 5.2% 4.4%
  • Fumbles 0.2 1.2
  • Turnovers 1.6 2.4
  • Points 34.2 20.4
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